Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx
Game Overview
The New York Yankees head into this game with a strong 93-68 record, showing recent excellent form with a 5-0 winning streak. The Baltimore Orioles, with a 75-86 record, have struggled recently, losing 5 of their last 7 games and being last in the AL East standings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have been dominant recently (5-0), particularly strong at home, while Orioles have been inconsistent and underperforming with a 4.61 team ERA and weaker offense.
- Yankees lead the recent head-to-head with Orioles, having won 3 of the last 4 in this series, including earlier in this matchup where Orioles lost two prior games by wide margins.
- No major injury reports impacting starting pitchers or key lineup players noted for either team at the time of the matchup.
- Weather conditions at Yankee Stadium are stable, offering no evident disadvantage; public betting overwhelmingly favors Yankees (89% of bets).
- Yankees remain motivated to solidify postseason positioning; Orioles have less playoff incentive being out of contention, which could impact competitive intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore +160, New York -190 | New York Yankees | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Baltimore +1.5 -120, New York -1.5 +100 | New York Yankees -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 9 -105, Under 9 -115 | Under 9 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Yankees -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on New York Yankees moneyline, Yankees -1.5 spread, and under 9 total runs for optimal value.
Predicted Score: New York Yankees 5 – 3 Baltimore Orioles
