Match Analysis: Auburn Tigers vs Mercer Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium
Game Overview
The Auburn Tigers, led by interim head coach DJ Durkin, return home after a bye week to face the Mercer Bears, who are Southern Conference repeat champions sitting at 9-1 with a strong 9-game winning streak. Auburn is 4-6 overall and 1-6 in conference, with key QB Ashton Daniels sitting out to redshirt, leaving Jackson Arnold and Deuce Knight to start. Mercer is an FCS powerhouse led by QB Braden Atkinson, who leads FCS in passing yards, with a strong defense efficient in run stopping. Auburn leads the all-time series 13-0 and is heavily favored despite recent struggles. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network+.
Key Factors to Consider
- Auburn has struggled this season at 4-6 with poor conference performance (1-6). Mercer has excelled at 9-1 overall and 8-0 in conference, with an explosive offense leading FCS in total offense, pass offense, and scoring. Auburn's offense is led by backup QBs, which poses some uncertainty. Defensively, Auburn faces challenges stopping Mercerโs potent passing attack.
- Auburn leads the series 13-0 against Mercer, with dominant historical margins including an all-time high of 92-0 in 1916. Recent games (last two since 2017) saw Auburn win decisively (average about 33-13). Mercer has never defeated Auburn, including 13 consecutive losses dating back to 1896.
- Auburn will be without starting quarterback Ashton Daniels who is redshirting; understudies Jackson Arnold and Deuce Knight will start. No major injuries reported for Mercer.
- The game is played at Auburnโs home stadium, Jordan-Hare, which gives Auburn home field advantage. Weather and other external factors are not mentioned as issues. Auburn has just had a bye week to rest and prepare.
- Auburn aims to recover from recent losses and prepare mentally for a major upcoming Iron Bowl game, focusing fully on this challenge. Mercer is motivated by a 9-game winning streak and recent Southern Conference dominance, as well as the chance to prove themselves against a Power 5 opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers: -7000, Mercer Bears: 2000 | Auburn Tigers moneyline win | Not available |
| Spread | Auburn Tigers: -27.5 -110, Mercer Bears: 27.5 -110 | Auburn Tigers -27.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 51.5 -110, Under: 51.5 -110 | Over 51.5 points | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 51.5 24% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 51.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Auburn is favored to win decisively given superior talent and home advantage despite recent struggles and backup QBs. Mercerโs outstanding offense may challenge Auburn, but the Tigersโ physicality and depth should prevail. Expected outcome is a comfortable Auburn victory covering the large spread but with a moderately high total points scored.
Predicted Score: Auburn Tigers 42 – Mercer Bears 14