Match Analysis: Bristol City vs Swansea City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:30 PM UTC
- Location: Ashton Gate, Bristol, England
Game Overview
The EFL Championship match features Bristol City hosting Swansea City, with Bristol City currently in 8th place and Swansea City in 18th. Both teams have shown inconsistent recent form, with Bristol City suffering three defeats in their last six home matches and Swansea City experiencing four losses recently. Historically, the head-to-head record is close, with Bristol City slightly ahead in overall wins but matches often tightly contested.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bristol City has had a relatively stronger season, ranking 8th, but has shown vulnerability at home. Swansea City, positioned 18th, struggles with consistency and defensive discipline evident from high card counts. Previous recent matches suggest low scoring and narrow margins.
- Across recent meetings, Bristol City has won approximately 8-12 times in 22-34 matches, and Swansea City has a similar number of wins around 7-9, with several draws in between. Matches have been tight, with comparable goal totals and points per game.
- No specific injury data available at this time, so injury impacts on either side are unclear. The absence of key players cannot be confirmed from the current data.
- The game is played at Ashton Gate, giving Bristol City home advantage. Current live odds imply the market favors Bristol City slightly, reflecting the home edge and current league positions.
- Bristol City aims to consolidate a playoff push with a home win, whereas Swansea City looks to escape relegation threat, motivating them to perform aggressively despite form struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bristol City: 112, Swansea City: 240, Draw: 215 | Bristol City win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Bristol City: -0.25 -115, Swansea City: +25 -105 | Bristol City -0.25 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Under 2.25 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bristol City -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A narrow victory for Bristol City is the most probable outcome given home advantage, recent form, and slightly better league standing. However, a draw is a reasonable outcome considering Swanseaβs fighting spirit and historic competitiveness.
Predicted Score: 1-0