Match Analysis: Kansas St Wildcats vs Mississippi St Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City
Game Overview
Mississippi State travels to Kansas City to face undefeated Kansas State in an early-season measuring stick matchup. Kansas State enters at 4-0 with an average of 93.5 points per game, relying heavily on guard play and perimeter efficiency. Mississippi State comes in at 2-1 behind the scoring punch of Josh Hubbard (22.3 PPG) and a significant rebounding advantage (44.3 boards per game vs Kansas State's 32.3). This game represents a critical test for Mississippi State's ability to compete against elite competition while Kansas State looks to maintain their undefeated start.[1][2][3]
Key Factors to Consider
- Kansas State has won all four games convincingly, with a narrow 84-83 victory over Tulsa exposing some defensive vulnerabilities where they allowed 47% shooting overall. Mississippi State is 2-1 with strong offensive balance and a 46% field goal percentage, but defensive concerns remain with 75.3 points allowed per game. Kansas State averages 78.5 points allowed, suggesting tighter defensive execution.[2][3]
- No recent head-to-head data is available from the search results for direct comparison of these teams' historical matchups.
- No injury information is provided in the available search results.
- Kansas State's perimeter shooting efficiency (33.7% allowed to opponents) provides a clear advantage against Mississippi State's inconsistent perimeter defense. Mississippi State's rebounding edge should generate extra possessions and second-chance opportunities, potentially slowing Kansas State's transition game. The game features physical, half-court-oriented play from both squads.[2][3]
- Kansas State is motivated to extend their undefeated start and demonstrate elite credentials. Mississippi State needs a marquee win to validate their season trajectory and establish themselves as a tournament-caliber team early in the season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas St: +130 | Mississippi St: -155 | Kansas State Wildcats | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Kansas St: +2.5 (-105) | Mississippi St: -2.5 (-115) | Kansas State +2.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 161.5 (-105) | Under: 161.5 (-115) | Under 161.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas St Wildcats 30% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Kansas St Wildcats at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kansas State 88, Mississippi State 79. Kansas State's overall offensive firepower, perimeter shooting efficiency, and guard play should prove too much for Mississippi State to overcome. While Mississippi State will control the rebounding battle and generate extra possessions, turnovers (averaging 16.3 per game) and defensive inconsistencies will be decisive factors in a closer-than-expected contest that favors the Wildcats.[2][3]
Predicted Score: Kansas State 88, Mississippi State 79 (Final: 167 total – Under 161.5)