Match Analysis: Utah Utes vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Game Overview
The Utah Utes host the Cal Poly Mustangs in a non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. Utah enters the game as heavy favorites, with strong recent form and a significant edge in talent and depth. Cal Poly, representing the Big West, will look to upset the Utes but faces a tough challenge on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah has shown consistent dominance, winning their last three games by double digits, including victories over Purdue Fort Wayne (85-77) and Sam Houston State (85-79). Cal Poly has struggled away from home, going 1-3 in road games this season and ranking eighth in the Big West. Utah's offense is efficient, averaging over 85 points per game, while Cal Poly's defense has allowed opponents to score over 75 points in recent outings.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Utah holds a clear advantage in overall program strength and recent matchups against similar competition. Utah's last five games against FCS-level or mid-major opponents have seen them win four, averaging 41.8 points per game and allowing just 13.8 points per game.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Utah is playing at home, where they have a strong record and crowd support. Cal Poly is on the road, which has been a disadvantage for them this season. The game is part of a non-conference slate, so both teams are focused on building momentum for conference play.
- Utah is motivated to maintain their winning streak and prepare for tougher conference matchups. Cal Poly is looking to prove themselves against a Power Five opponent and boost their resume for potential postseason consideration.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Utes: -1050, Cal Poly Mustangs: 660 | Utah Utes | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Utah Utes -12.5 (-110), Cal Poly Mustangs +12.5 (-110) | Utah Utes -12.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 169.5 (-110), Under 169.5 (-110) | Over 169.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Utes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 169.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 169.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah is expected to win comfortably, with a strong performance from their offense and defense. Cal Poly may keep the game competitive early, but Utah's depth and home-court advantage should prevail.
Predicted Score: Utah Utes 88 – Cal Poly Mustangs 77