Match Analysis: Rice Owls vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Rice Owls Home Court, Houston, TX
Game Overview
This NCAA men's basketball game features the Rice Owls hosting the Tarleton State Texans. Rice has a mixed recent form with a 3-2 record in their last five games and average scoring around 74.6 points per match. Tarleton State shows a stronger recent home performance with a 4-1 record overall and notable first-half scoring prowess, often surpassing 95 points in the first half in 57% of their recent games. No recent head-to-head meetings exist between these teams since the mid-1980s, though historical Rice dominance at home is recorded from archival data.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rice Owls have scored over 70 points in the first half in 66% of their last 9 games but recently suffered losses to strong opponents like Tennessee and Princeton. Tarleton State Texans have shown strong first half scoring with over 95 points in 57% of their last 7 games and have a solid recent home record.
- No recent head-to-head matches exist between Rice and Tarleton State since 1985; Rice holds historical advantage with a 3-0 record at home in the 1970s and 80s.
- No current injury information is available for either team from the provided data.
- Rice Owls have home court advantage playing in Houston, TX. Weather or other external disruptions are not indicated. The game is scheduled in a familiar environment for Rice.
- Rice seeks to bounce back after recent losses to key conference opponents and defend home court advantage. Tarleton State aims to extend their winning momentum following recent home wins and leverage their high-scoring first-half trend.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rice Owls: -162, Tarleton State Texans: 136 | Rice Owls win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Rice Owls -2.5: -118, Tarleton State Texans +2.5: -102 | Rice Owls to cover -2.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 145.5: -112, Under 145.5: -108 | Under 145.5 | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rice Owls 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rice Owls are favored due to home advantage and a slightly better defensive record, but the match is expected to be competitive. A close victory by Rice covering the -2.5 spread is predicted with a moderately high confidence. The total points are expected close to the set over/under line of 145.5, slightly leaning towards the under due to Rice’s recent defensive improvements.
Predicted Score: Rice Owls 74 – Tarleton State Texans 69
