Match Analysis: UCF Knights vs Pittsburgh Panthers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ocean Center, Daytona Beach, FL
Game Overview
The UCF Knights will host the Pittsburgh Panthers in a tightly matched NCAA basketball game. Both teams enter the game with 4-1 records and similar recent performances. The Panthers are slight favorites by 1.5 points on the spread, with the over/under set near 153.5 points, indicating a moderately paced game expected by bookmakers. UCF has shown strong form at home with a three-game winning streak, while Pittsburgh enters with an undefeated home record but a recent loss away.
Key Factors to Consider
- UCF has a slight offensive edge, averaging 445 points for and 400 points allowed over their last five games, with a 3-1 home record and a three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh's defense looks strong, allowing 306 points over the same span, although their offense is a bit lower at 363 points scored. Both teams are 4-1 overall, but Pittsburgh is perfect at home (4-0) and winless away (0-1).
- No specific head-to-head data available for recent matchups between UCF and Pittsburgh, but current competitive parity is suggested by near-equal odds and recent similar records.
- No reported significant injuries for either team that would majorly impact this game according to available sources.
- The game is at a neutral/neutral-site venue (Ocean Center, Daytona Beach) rather than UCF's usual home court, which may slightly reduce home advantage. Weather factors are not relevant for indoor college basketball.
- Both teams have strong motivation to maintain their winning records early in the season; UCF seeks to extend a winning streak and capitalize on home-region advantage, while Pittsburgh aims to assert dominance away from home and maintain momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers: -125, UCF Knights: 104 | UCF Knights to win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers: -1.5 -104, UCF Knights: +1.5 -118 | UCF Knights +1.5 covers | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 153.5 -110, Under: 153.5 -110 | Under 153.5 points | β β β ββ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCF Knights 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: UCF Knights at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given UCF's recent form and value identified in their moneyline odds, they are predicted to win a close game against Pittsburgh. The spread also favors UCF covering +1.5 points. The total points expected are slightly under 154, with defense being a strong factor for Pittsburgh.
Predicted Score: UCF Knights 77 – Pittsburgh Panthers 75