Match Analysis: Saint Mary's Gaels vs Arkansas St Red Wolves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moraga, California (Saint Mary's Home Court)
Game Overview
Saint Mary's Gaels (4-0) host Arkansas St Red Wolves (3-1) in a college basketball game where Saint Mary's enters undefeated and favored heavily. The Gaels have shown dominant offensive and defensive performances at home, while Arkansas State has a solid but less consistent record. This contest features a striking disparity in both team strength and betting market respect.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint Mary's is unbeaten this season with a strong home record, dominating recent games with high shooting efficiency (50% FG, 43% 3P) and excellent free throw shooting (81%). Arkansas State, while 3-1, struggles in shooting efficiency and has a much lower three-point percentage (24%). Saint Mary's also averages more rebounds, assists, and steals per game, showing more all-around performance.
- No recent head-to-head data available from sources, but Saint Mary's superior season start and home advantage heavily favor them. Historical strength in similar matchups leans decisively towards Saint Mary's.
- No reported injuries or absences affecting key players for either team at game time.
- All betting and statistical indicators show Saint Mary's as a heavy favorite with bookmakers offering moneyline odds as low as -4500. The game taking place at Saint Mary's home court adds a significant advantage. Public betting splits evenly but with heavy money on Saint Mary's, reflecting confidence in their performance.
- Saint Mary's motivation is high to maintain their perfect record and showcase dominance early in the season, especially at home. Arkansas State looks for an upset to strengthen their playoff resume but faces an uphill battle against a superior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels: -4500, Arkansas St Red Wolves: 1600 | Saint Mary's Gaels | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Saint Mary's Gaels: -19.5 -120, Arkansas St Red Wolves: +19.5 -102 | Saint Mary's Gaels to cover -19.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 145.5: -114, Under 145.5: -106 | Over 145.5 points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 145.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 145.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saint Mary's Gaels to win convincingly with strong confidence due to superior overall team statistics, home advantage, and strong recent form. Expected to cover the 19.5-point spread and push the game total over 145.5 points.
Predicted Score: Saint Mary's Gaels 87 – Arkansas St Red Wolves 65