Match Analysis: New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Smoothie King Center
Game Overview
The Denver Nuggets, currently one of the top teams in the Western Conference with a 10-3 record, visit the struggling New Orleans Pelicans, who hold a 2-12 record and are on a 4-game home losing streak. Expected to be a one-sided contest, the Nuggets are favored heavily given their strong offensive performance led by Nikola JokiΔ, while the Pelicans are battling significant challenges both on offense and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denver Nuggets show strong performance with a 10-3 record, averaging high offensive efficiency with key players like Nikola JokiΔ scoring around 29.2 PPG. New Orleans Pelicans have struggled this season with a 2-12 record, experiencing a 4-game home losing streak, indicating weak form and defensive vulnerabilities.
- Historically, Denver Nuggets have dominated recent matchups against the Pelicans, holding a superior win rate. The trend favors Denver, who typically control the pace and scoring in these encounters.
- There are no significant injury reports for either team ahead of this match suggesting both teams will play with a full or near-full roster, maintaining Denverβs strength and New Orleansβs competitiveness to an extent.
- The match is held at Smoothie King Center (New Orleans), which could provide a slight home-court advantage though this might be minimal considering the Pelicans' poor home form. The venue enforces strict camera and bag policies and operates cashless. The Nuggets will be motivated to extend their winning ways on the road.
- Denver Nuggets are motivated to maintain their upward trajectory in the conference standings and avoid consecutive losses. New Orleans Pelicans aim to halt their home losing streak and improve season standings, though motivation may be tempered by their current form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets: -950, New Orleans Pelicans: 625 | Denver Nuggets | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Denver Nuggets: -14.5 -108, New Orleans Pelicans: +14.5 -112 | Denver Nuggets -14.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over: 232.5 -115, Under: 232.5 -105 | Over 232.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 232.5 35% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 232.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denver Nuggets are strongly predicted to win the match convincingly, covering the spread and pushing the total points over the set line due to their high scoring capability and the Pelicans' defensive weaknesses.
Predicted Score: Denver Nuggets 125 – New Orleans Pelicans 108