Match Analysis: Marquette Golden Eagles vs Dayton Flyers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 19, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Game Overview
The Marquette Golden Eagles (3-2) host the Dayton Flyers (3-1) in a mid-week college basketball matchup. Marquette enters as 5.5-point favorites after suffering a disappointing 89-82 home loss to Maryland as an 8.5-point favorite. Dayton arrives on a positive note following a 91-82 victory over Bethune-Cookman, though they suffered a significant road loss to Cincinnati (74-62) earlier in their season. This matchup features contrasting team dynamics, with Marquette relying heavily on Chase Ross's offensive firepower while Dayton emphasizes a slower, more methodical pace of play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marquette has been inconsistent, going 3-2 with significant fluctuations in performance. They were crushed by Indiana (loss by 23 points) before bouncing back against weaker competition. Their most recent loss to Maryland is concerning given they were favored by 8.5 points. Dayton maintains a better record at 3-1 but faced a tough road test against Cincinnati. Dayton's home record (3-0) is perfect, while their road record is 0-1. Marquette's home record is 3-1 with an 0-1 road record. Both teams show vulnerability in certain matchups and contexts. Dayton ranks 269th nationally in Adjusted Tempo (KenPom), indicating they prefer a slower pace. Marquette has gone 3-2 in their last five games and 2-3 against the spread during that same period.
- In their most recent matchup, Dayton defeated Marquette 71-63, demonstrating they can compete with the Golden Eagles. This head-to-head advantage suggests Dayton possesses the personnel and strategic elements to stay competitive in this rematch. The previous Dayton victory indicates this is not a guaranteed Marquette win despite the home court and point spread advantage.
- No significant injury information is provided in available reports. Both teams appear to be at near-full strength for this matchup.
- The game will be broadcast on truTV, ensuring adequate media coverage. Marquette's home court advantage at Fiserv Forum is meaningful, as they are 3-1 at home this season compared to 0-1 on the road. Dayton's excellent 3-0 home record contrasts with their 0-1 road record, suggesting they may struggle with travel and away-game dynamics. The timing of this game (mid-week) may affect preparation and rest for both teams.
- Marquette enters seeking redemption after the disappointing loss to Maryland at home. The Golden Eagles will be motivated to protect their home court and prove they belong among the elite teams. Dayton, conversely, enters with confidence from their home win and a previous head-to-head victory over Marquette, potentially providing psychological momentum despite being on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dayton: +230 | Marquette: -285 | Marquette Golden Eagles | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Dayton: +5.5 (-105) | Marquette: -5.5 (-115) | Dayton Flyers +5.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 151.5 (-108) | Under: 151.5 (-112) | Under 151.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marquette Golden Eagles -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marquette Golden Eagles are favored to win, but this is a more competitive matchup than the 5.5-point spread suggests. While Marquette has home court advantage and Chase Ross's 31-point performance demonstrates offensive capability, Dayton's previous victory over Marquette, superior home record (3-0), and slower pace of play present challenges to the favorites. Marquette's defensive vulnerabilities (allowing Maryland to shoot 53% from the field) could be exploited by Dayton's balanced scoring attack featuring Bennett and Montgomery. The game will likely be closer than the spread indicates, though Marquette's talent and motivation to rebound from a disappointing loss should give them the edge.
Predicted Score: Marquette 78, Dayton 73