Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs William & Mary Tribe – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bowling Green Falcons Home Court
Game Overview
The Bowling Green Falcons (3-1) host the William & Mary Tribe (2-2) in an NCAA college basketball matchup. Bowling Green has shown strong offensive efficiency, averaging 93.3 points per game with a 48.9% FG percentage, ranking 83rd nationally. William & Mary averages 84.3 points per game with a shooting percentage of 46.9% but struggles from three-point range at 32.4%. Recent form shows both teams coming off losses, with Bowling Green losing a close game to Davidson and William & Mary suffering a heavy defeat to St. John's.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bowling Green's offense is more efficient, with better shooting percentages and rebounding (38.0 per game) compared to William & Mary. William & Mary plays a faster-paced style but has inconsistencies from the free-throw line (69.5%). Bowling Green averages 15 assists per game, indicating solid team play. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, indicated by opponent scoring and shooting efficiency in recent games.
- Previous head-to-head data is limited online, but historical matchups indicate a competitive rivalry with no clear dominant team. Recent trends favor Bowling Green with better overall season records and home-court advantage.
- No major injuries reported for either team that could significantly affect their core rotations or starters.
- The game takes place at Bowling Greenβs home venue, which gives the Falcons an advantage. Both teams face pressure to bounce back from recent losses, potentially affecting motivation and play intensity.
- Bowling Green aims to maintain its strong start and avoid back-to-back losses at home. William & Mary seeks to improve its uneven start and gain confidence with a road upset. Bowling Green's undefeated home record (3-0) and more consistent season momentum provide a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons: -278, William & Mary Tribe: 225 | Bowling Green Falcons to win | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons: -7.5 -105, William & Mary Tribe: 7.5 -115 | Bowling Green to cover the -7.5 points spread | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 165.5 -108, Under: 165.5 -112 | Under 165.5 points total | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 165.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 165.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bowling Green Falcons are favored to win straight up due to stronger offensive metrics, home advantage, and momentum. The predicted margin covers the -7.5 spread, with a moderately low total game score expectation influenced by recent defensive lapses and shooting inconsistencies.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green Falcons 87 – 78 William & Mary Tribe