Match Analysis: Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 20, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
Game Overview
The Indiana Pacers host the Charlotte Hornets in an NBA matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. This represents a critical juncture for both teams, with the Pacers struggling through a difficult stretch while the Hornets seek consistency. Historically, the Pacers dominate this matchup with a 75-56 regular season record against Charlotte, winning 57.3% of their encounters. The Pacers have also won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Indiana Pacers are in severe crisis, having lost 8 straight games heading into this matchup. Most recently, they fell 127-112 to the Detroit Pistons on November 18, 2025. Over their last 10 games, the Pacers are 1-9, averaging only 107.2 points per game while allowing 123.8 points—a concerning 16.6 point differential. Their shooting efficiency has deteriorated significantly (40.1% FG, 33% 3PT, 79.4% FT). The Charlotte Hornets are also struggling with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, but they show marginally better offensive metrics. They're averaging 111.8 points with opponents scoring 117.7 points (6-point deficit). The Hornets shoot 44.7% from the field with a strong 85% free-throw percentage. While both teams are underperforming, the Hornets' recent scoring output and shooting efficiency slightly edge out the Pacers' deteriorating form.
- The Pacers hold a dominant all-time head-to-head record of 75-56 against the Hornets in regular season play (57.3% win rate). In the most recent game on April 2, 2025, the Pacers won 119-105 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Pacers' last 5 matchup record shows 4 wins and 1 loss, with an average of 108.8 PPG against 110.4 for opponents. However, this historical advantage must be weighed against current form—the Pacers' 8-game losing streak significantly diminishes their typical dominance over Charlotte.
- The search results do not provide specific information about current injuries for either team. This represents a significant unknown factor that could substantially impact the outcome, particularly given the Pacers' ongoing struggles.
- Home court advantage favors the Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, though their recent 1-9 stretch suggests this advantage may be diminished. The game commences at midnight UTC, which corresponds to 7:00 PM EST on November 19, 2025 (an evening home game for Indianapolis). Back-to-back games or rest differentials are not specified in available data. The Pacers' defensive collapse (allowing 123.8 PPG in last 10) represents the primary concern, while the Hornets' offensive consistency provides a counterbalance.
- The Pacers face extreme motivation to halt their 8-game losing streak and restore credibility at home. Such a prolonged slump typically generates internal urgency and increased focus. Conversely, the Hornets seek to capitalize on the Pacers' vulnerability, though their own struggles (2-8 in last 10) limit their psychological advantage. For bettors, extended losing streaks occasionally trigger mean reversion, but the Pacers' defensive metrics suggest systemic issues rather than variance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pacers -102 / Hornets -118 | Indiana Pacers (slight lean despite poor form) | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Spread | Pacers +1.5 -112 / Hornets -1.5 -108 | Indiana Pacers +1.5 (cover) | ★★★☆☆ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 236.5 -108 / Under 236.5 -112 | Under 236.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Pacers 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 236.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 236.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This matchup presents a classic tension between historical trends and current form. While the Pacers' 57.3% all-time win rate and 4-1 edge in recent meetings strongly favor Indiana, their current 8-game losing streak and severe defensive deterioration (123.8 PPG allowed) create genuine vulnerability. The Hornets' marginally superior recent shooting efficiency (44.7% vs 40.1%) and home-court neutrality compound this concern. The moneyline odds reflect this uncertainty, with the Hornets slightly favored at -118 versus the Pacers at -102, suggesting a near-coin-flip scenario with a slight edge to Charlotte. However, the Pacers' historical dominance and home-court advantage create a genuine case for mean reversion. Expect a tightly contested, low-scoring affair reflecting both teams' offensive struggles. The projected total around 236.5 points appears reasonable given recent offensive output (Pacers 107.2 PPG, Hornets 111.8 PPG in last 10 games suggests combined scoring near 219 PPG, though both teams elevate against weaker opposition).
Predicted Score: Indiana Pacers 112, Charlotte Hornets 108 (Total: 220 points)
