Match Analysis: Jacksonville St Gamecocks vs South Alabama Jaguars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pete Mathews Coliseum, Jacksonville
Game Overview
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (3-0) host the South Alabama Jaguars (5-0) in a competitive NCAAB matchup. South Alabama enters undefeated with a strong overall offensive output, while Jacksonville State is also unbeaten at home, known for their robust defense and rebounding. The total scoring line is set at a relatively low 136.5, though experts anticipate a moderately high scoring game due to both teams' recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama leads with a 5-0 record averaging 77.8 points per game while conceding 64 points. Jacksonville State is 3-0, with a higher scoring average of approximately 101.7 points per game and stronger defense, allowing only 56.3 points. Jacksonville State dominates the boards (51.3 rebounds/game vs. 39.8 for South Alabama) and facilitates better ball movement (16.7 assists/game vs. 13.0). South Alabama's El Moutaouakkil recently scored 33 points, showing individual offensive firepower. Jacksonville State has a current winning streak at home and overall, showcasing momentum.
- In the last five meetings, South Alabama has won three times, including a close 76-74 victory in the most recent encounter. However, Jacksonville State's form and home advantage tilt the balance slightly in their favor this time.
- No significant injury updates reported affecting the starting lineups or key players of either team at the time of analysis.
- The game takes place at Jacksonville Stateβs home arena, involving travel for South Alabama. This home-court advantage along with Jacksonville State's strong home winning record (3-0) is a factor. Both teams are highly motivated early in the season undefeated, which may increase competitiveness. Public betting shows a balanced interest with 50% on Jacksonville State in moneyline bets.
- South Alabama aims to maintain a perfect record and build upon their recent narrow win against Jacksonville State, seeking to assert dominance in the rivalry. Jacksonville State is motivated to defend their home turf and improve their season record against a highly ranked opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville St Gamecocks: -162, South Alabama Jaguars: 136 | Jacksonville St Gamecocks to win | β β β ββ 66% |
| Spread | Jacksonville St Gamecocks: -2.5 -115, South Alabama Jaguars: +2.5 -105 | Jacksonville State to cover -2.5 spread | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 136.5 -105, Under: 136.5 -115 | Over 136.5 points | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville St Gamecocks 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 136.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 136.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State is favored to win due to strong home performance, superior rebounding, and defensive metrics despite South Alabamaβs undefeated record and recent head-to-head success. Expect a competitive game with a lean towards Jacksonville State covering the spread and the totals going over the projected 136.5 points.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville State 70 – South Alabama 67