Match Analysis: Maryland Terrapins vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 19, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Game Overview
The Maryland Terrapins (3-1) host the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (1-3) in a heavily lopsided college basketball matchup. Maryland enters as overwhelming favorites with a 97.8% implied win probability based on moneyline odds. The Terrapins have dominated the series historically, winning 16 of their last 17 games at home against non-AP-ranked opponents. Mount St. Mary's arrives as a struggling mid-major program that has lost four of its last five non-conference games and faces a significant talent and experience gap.
Key Factors to Consider
- Maryland has started the season strong at 3-1, averaging 79.0 points per game while shooting 43.6% from the field and 82.8% from the free throw line. The Terrapins average 36.5 rebounds per contest and are committing only 13.8 turnovers per game. Mount St. Mary's has struggled significantly at 1-3, averaging just 61.3 points per game (355th nationally) while shooting 42.0% from the field and 32.3% from three-point range. The Mountaineers' defense has been vulnerable, allowing opponents to score effectively throughout their early season struggles.
- Maryland dominates the historical matchup against Mount St. Mary's. In their last meeting on November 8, 2024, Maryland won decisively 86-52 at home, covering a -24.0 spread. Historical data shows Maryland has won four consecutive meetings with Mount St. Mary's, with the games typically becoming blowouts. The average margin of victory for Maryland in recent matchups exceeds 20 points, with spreads consistently ranging from -20.5 to -25.5 in Maryland's favor.
- No specific injuries are reported for either team in the available information. However, handicappers note that injuries are factored into their assessments and the available odds already account for team health status at the time of analysis.
- Mount St. Mary's has struggled specifically in road games against Big Ten Conference opponents, losing the first half in each of its last nine such contests. This pattern suggests the Mountaineers may fall behind significantly early and struggle to recover against a superior opponent in a hostile road environment. Maryland's home court advantage at XFINITY Center is substantial, as evidenced by their 16-1 record at home against non-ranked opponents.
- Maryland has every incentive to dominate as a heavy favorite and maintain consistency in their early season success. Mount St. Mary's motivation is minimal beyond survival against a far superior opponent, though they may seek to avoid a catastrophic blowout loss. The disparity in program resources, recruiting, and Big Ten Conference membership creates a significant motivation gap.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maryland -4000 / Mt. St. Mary's +1400 | Maryland Terrapins Win | ★★★★★ 99% |
| Spread | Maryland -19.5 (-110) / Mt. St. Mary's +19.5 (-110) | Maryland -19.5 Cover | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 (-110) / Under 139.5 (-110) | Under 139.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Maryland Terrapins at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Maryland Terrapins will defeat Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers convincingly. The Terrapins' superior talent, cohesive team play, strong home record against comparable opponents, and Mount St. Mary's consistent defensive vulnerabilities create an overwhelming case for a Maryland victory. Expect Maryland to control the game from the opening tip, establish early leads, and coast to victory with potential bench players entering the game in the second half.
Predicted Score: Maryland 79, Mount St. Mary's 58
