Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs Alabama St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Game Overview
Air Force Falcons (0-4) host Alabama State Hornets (2-2) in a non-conference matchup at Clune Arena. Air Force is winless this season and struggling defensively, ranking near the bottom nationally in points allowed and field goal percentage defense. Alabama State is averaging 82.8 points per game but also allowing 84.3 points per game, indicating a high-scoring, low-defensive contest. The game is expected to be close, with Air Force favored by a narrow margin at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Air Force is 0-4 with poor offensive and defensive metrics, shooting 41.2% from the field and allowing opponents to shoot 47.1%. Alabama State is 2-2, averaging 82.8 points per game but allowing 84.3 points per game. The Hornets shoot 43.8% from the field and 35.6% from three, but only 56.0% from the free throw line. Air Force has lost each of its last 13 games when playing with a rest advantage, while Alabama State has lost each of its last five day games against non-conference opponents.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but Air Force has won each of its last 10 games against the Southwestern Athletic Conference, which Alabama State is a part of.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Air Force is playing at home, which could provide a slight advantage. The game is being played at a high altitude in Colorado Springs, which may affect player stamina and shooting percentages. The game is scheduled for a Wednesday evening, with no major weather or scheduling disruptions expected.
- Air Force is desperate for a win after starting the season 0-4 and will be highly motivated to break their losing streak. Alabama State is looking to build momentum after a mixed start to the season and will be motivated to prove themselves against a non-conference opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: -128, Alabama St Hornets: 104 | Air Force Falcons | Not available |
| Spread | Air Force Falcons: -1.5, Alabama St Hornets: 1.5 | Air Force Falcons -1.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 140.5, Under: 140.5 | Over 140.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 140.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 140.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Air Force is favored by a narrow margin at home, but Alabama State's offensive firepower and Air Force's defensive struggles suggest a close game. Air Force's home advantage and recent success against SWAC opponents give them a slight edge, but Alabama State's ability to score and Air Force's poor defensive metrics make this a toss-up. The game is likely to be high-scoring, with both teams capable of putting up points.
Predicted Score: Air Force Falcons 72, Alabama St Hornets 70