Match Analysis: Real Madrid vs Žalgiris – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Movistar Arena
Game Overview
This EuroLeague clash features Real Madrid hosting Žalgiris Kaunas at Movistar Arena. Both teams are in competitive form, with Real Madrid boasting a strong home record and Žalgiris showing resilience on the road. The game is expected to be a tight contest, with both sides averaging close to 85 points per game this season. Key factors include Real Madrid's recent dominance in head-to-head matchups and Žalgiris's ability to keep games close, especially in away fixtures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Real Madrid averages 83.9 points per game with a PIR of 95.4, while Žalgiris averages 86.5 points and a PIR of 97.9. Real Madrid leads in rebounds (38.8 vs 35.5) and assists (17.4 vs 18.5), but Žalgiris edges in offensive rebounds (12.2 vs 12.0). Both teams are disciplined, with low turnover rates.
- Real Madrid holds a dominant 81.8% win rate in head-to-head matchups, including a 3-game winning streak. At home, Real Madrid wins 88.2% of the time against Žalgiris, while Žalgiris wins only 11.8% of away games in this series. The last five meetings have seen Real Madrid win by an average margin of 10 points.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest lineups.
- The game is played at Movistar Arena, a venue where Real Madrid enjoys a significant home advantage. Crowd support and familiarity with the court could influence the outcome.
- Real Madrid is motivated to maintain their top position in the EuroLeague standings, while Žalgiris seeks to improve their away record and challenge for a playoff spot.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Madrid: -270, Žalgiris: 220 | Real Madrid | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Real Madrid: -6.5, Žalgiris: 6.5 | Real Madrid -6.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: 162.5, under: 162.5 | Over 162.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Madrid 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 162.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 162.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Real Madrid is favored to win this match due to their superior home record, recent form, and head-to-head dominance. Žalgiris is capable of keeping the game close, but Real Madrid's consistency and depth should prevail.
Predicted Score: Real Madrid 86 – 78 Žalgiris