Match Analysis: Belleville Senators vs Toronto Marlies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 3:30 PM UTC
- Location: CAA Arena, Belleville, ON, Canada
Game Overview
The Belleville Senators will host the Toronto Marlies in an American Hockey League (AHL) North Division matchup. Both teams are eager for strong positioning in a competitive division. Belleville enters with home advantage at the CAA Arena, while Toronto faces a congested November schedule with many road games, potentially affecting fatigue levels.
Key Factors to Consider
- Recent form data is limited; however, Toronto Marlies have been enduring a busy road-heavy November with 10 away games, which might impact performance. Belleville Senators recently posted a strong 7-4 win over Syracuse, signaling good offensive output. Both teams seem fairly balanced with tight moneyline odds.
- No detailed head-to-head stats found for recent seasons between these two on November 19 specifically, but historically, Belleville and Toronto have maintained competitive encounters typical of regional rivals in the AHL North Division.
- No specific injury reports are available from the gathered data. Both teams likely field close to full rosters for this league match given upcoming schedules.
- Toronto's grueling travel schedule in November might cause fatigue. Additionally, the home crowd and theme night atmosphere at Bellevilleβs arena may provide momentum for the Senators.
- Belleville looks to leverage home ice advantage to climb North Division standings. Toronto aims to sustain momentum despite a taxing schedule and secure points away from home to maintain playoff positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belleville Senators: -115, Toronto Marlies: -115 | Belleville Senators to win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Belleville Senators +1.5: -300, Toronto Marlies -1.5: 220 | Belleville Senators +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5: -110, Under 5.5: -120 | Under 5.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Belleville Senators -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the equal moneyline odds (-115 for both), the home advantage combined with Toronto's heavy travel schedule suggests a slight edge for Belleville Senators in a close and competitive match.
Predicted Score: Belleville Senators 3 – 2 Toronto Marlies