Match Analysis: San Francisco Dons vs Northwestern St Demons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, San Francisco, CA
Game Overview
The San Francisco Dons, with a 3-1 start and strong defensive metrics, face the Northwestern State Demons, who are struggling at 0-3 this season. San Francisco has a notable home-court advantage and defensive efficiency, allowing just 65.8 points per game and forcing 13.8 turnovers per contest. Northwestern State has difficulty maintaining possession and committing many fouls, with a weaker overall team performance and offensive production.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Francisco averages a +15 point differential, ranks 70th in points allowed, and demonstrates solid defense with only 36.3% opponent shooting and a 30.5% three-point defense. Northwestern State suffers a -10.2 point differential, loses possession more frequently, commits more fouls (20.7 per game), and has scored only once in four games.
- There is no recent direct head-to-head matchup data readily available, but San Francisco has won its last 22 night games at home, while Northwestern State has lost its last 15 night games against non-conference opponents. San Francisco dominates historically in night and home matchups.
- San Francisco is missing forward Ndewedo Newbury due to a leg injury, which could affect their frontcourt depth, but their depth and defensive strength remain intact. No significant injuries reported for Northwestern State.
- Playing at home with a packed War Memorial at the Sobrato Center gives San Francisco a clear edge. Northwestern State's road struggles and losses in early season games reduce their momentum and confidence going into this matchup.
- San Francisco is motivated to extend their home-night dominance and improve their record to 4-1, while Northwestern State aims to reverse their losing streak and get their first win of the season, but the disparity in recent results suggests San Francisco has the stronger motivation supported by performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Northwestern State Demons: 1300, San Francisco Dons: -3000 | San Francisco Dons to win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Northwestern State Demons: +19.5 -105, San Francisco Dons: -19.5 -115 | San Francisco Dons to cover the spread | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -110, Under: 146.5 -110 | Over 146.5 points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco Dons -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Francisco Dons are heavily favored to win convincingly, likely covering the -19.5 spread with strong defense and efficient offense controlling the game pace. Northwestern State is expected to struggle both offensively and defensively.
Predicted Score: San Francisco Dons 85 – Northwestern State Demons 63