Match Analysis: LSU Tigers vs Alcorn St Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Tuesday, November 18, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Game Overview
LSU Tigers (3-0) host the struggling Alcorn State Braves (0-5) in a heavily lopsided matchup. The Tigers are operating as one of the nation's most efficient offenses, ranking 19th in field goal percentage at 54.7%, while Alcorn State has been one of the worst teams in college basketball this season, averaging just 64.8 points per game on 43% shooting. This is a classic David versus Goliath scenario where the home team is heavily favored to dominate on both ends of the court.
Key Factors to Consider
- LSU enters this game undefeated with consistent offensive efficiency, scoring 94.5 points per contest while shooting 54.7% from the field and 75.4% from the free throw line. The Tigers are also strong on the glass with 47.5 rebounds per game and distribute 21.0 assists per contest (23rd in the nation). Alcorn State, conversely, has won zero games this season, averaging only 65.0 points per game while shooting 41.4% from the field and connecting on just 39.8% of three-pointers. The Braves' defense has been historically poor, allowing 87 points per game.
- No prior matchup history is available between these programs in the current dataset, making this an opening encounter for the season series.
- LSU's forward Jalen Reed is out for the season with a knee injury, which removes depth from the Tigers' frontcourt but does not significantly impact their expected performance in this matchup.
- LSU is playing at home where they have shown strong form, with the over hitting in 2 of their last 3 home games. The Tigers are 3-0 in their last 5 games and maintain undefeated status. Alcorn State's road struggles are evident, having lost their last game by 8 points away from home.
- LSU is motivated to maintain their undefeated record and home court dominance. Alcorn State is desperate to secure their first win of the season after a 0-5 start, but they face a significantly superior opponent in all statistical categories.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | LSU -10000 | Alcorn St +3300 | LSU Tigers Win | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | LSU -29.5 (-110) | Alcorn St +29.5 (-110) | LSU Covers -29.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over 157.5 (-110) | Under 157.5 (-110) | Over 157.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 157.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 157.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
LSU will dominate this matchup decisively. The Tigers' elite offensive efficiency combined with Alcorn State's historically poor defensive metrics create a scenario where LSU should win by approximately 25-35 points. Multiple experts project a final score of LSU 104, Alcorn State 55, suggesting a potential blowout win for the home team. The public betting data shows 96% of moneyline money on LSU, indicating overwhelming confidence in the Tigers' victory.
Predicted Score: LSU 104, Alcorn State 55 (LSU wins by 49)