Match Analysis: Ole Miss Rebels vs Austin Peay Governors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 18, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Pavilion at Ole Miss, Oxford, Mississippi
Game Overview
The undefeated Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) host the Austin Peay Governors (3-1) in a non-conference NCAA Division I men's basketball matchup. Ole Miss enters as a heavy favorite with a 21.5-point spread, reflecting their perfect record and strong recent performance. Austin Peay comes off a road victory against UNC Greensboro but faces a significant step up in competition against an undefeated SEC opponent playing at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ole Miss has dominated opponents with a 4-0 record, most recently defeating Memphis 83-77 on the road and CSU Bakersfield 82-60 at home. The Rebels are shooting efficiently and controlling the boards with 36 rebounds in their last game. Austin Peay has shown competence at 3-1, averaging 84-89 points per game with solid shooting percentages (46% from the field, 35.9% from three). However, Austin Peay's 60.8 points allowed per game suggests defensive vulnerabilities that Ole Miss's balanced attack can exploit.
- Historical data shows Ole Miss has a significant advantage over Austin Peay, though recent head-to-head meetings are limited. Ole Miss's elite-level competition and consistency contrasts sharply with Austin Peay's lower-conference status.
- No injury reports are currently available for either team.
- This is a home game for Ole Miss, providing a significant advantage. Austin Peay is on the road after playing away games recently. The early-season nature of this matchup means both teams may have personnel still establishing roles and chemistry. Ole Miss's undefeated status adds psychological pressure to maintain perfection.
- Ole Miss is motivated to remain undefeated and make a statement in early-season rankings. Austin Peay seeks to prove competitiveness against high-level opposition and secure a quality non-conference win. Ole Miss's home court advantage and superior talent gives them stronger motivation to dominate.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss -4500 | Austin Peay +1600 | Ole Miss Rebels Win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | -21.5 -110 | Ole Miss -21.5 (Rebels to cover) | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | 148.5 -110 | Under 148.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 148.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 148.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ole Miss is overwhelming favorites to win decisively at home. The Rebels' perfect record, elite defensive efficiency (60.8 PPG allowed), strong rebounding, and home-court advantage create multiple layers of advantage over Austin Peay. While Austin Peay has shown improvement at 3-1, they face a significant talent and experience gap. Expect Ole Miss to control the game from start to finish, with their defense limiting Austin Peay's offensive efficiency while their balanced scoring attack overwhelms the Governors' defense.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss Rebels 88, Austin Peay Governors 64