Match Analysis: Evansville Purple Aces vs UT-Arlington Mavericks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ford Center, Evansville, IN
Game Overview
The Evansville Purple Aces host the UT-Arlington Mavericks in a non-conference matchup on Tuesday, November 18, 2025. Both teams enter with moderate records, Evansville at 2-2 and UT-Arlington at 3-1. The game is set for 8:00 PM EST at the Ford Center, a venue where Evansville has historically performed well against non-conference opponents. The betting lines indicate a slight edge for Evansville, with a spread of -2.5 and a total set at 141.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Evansville Purple Aces are shooting 30.8% from three and 67.2% from the free-throw line, while allowing 31.6% shooting from deep and averaging 36.3 rebounds per game. UT-Arlington ranks 3rd in Division 1 for opponent field goals made per game (18.0) and 5th for opponent three-point percentage (19.7%). UT-Arlington has won three of its last four games against non-AP-ranked opponents and has won the first half in five of its last six night games against non-conference opponents.
- The last meeting between these teams was on December 18, 2024, when Evansville lost to UT-Arlington 54-80. Evansville has lost each of its last nine Tuesday night games, while UT-Arlington has lost each of its last nine Tuesday night road games against non-conference opponents.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- The game is being played at the Ford Center, Evansville's home court, where they have won 44 of their last 53 games against non-conference opponents. The weather and travel conditions are not expected to impact the game.
- Evansville is motivated to break their losing streak on Tuesday nights and to perform well at home. UT-Arlington is looking to continue their strong start to the season and to overcome their poor record in Tuesday night road games against non-conference opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Evansville Purple Aces: -148, UT-Arlington Mavericks: 124 | Evansville Purple Aces | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Evansville Purple Aces: -2.5 -105, UT-Arlington Mavericks: 2.5 -115 | Evansville Purple Aces | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 141.5 -110, Under: 141.5 -110 | Over | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Evansville Purple Aces -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 141.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Evansville Purple Aces at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the historical performance, recent trends, and the current odds, Evansville Purple Aces are favored to win this game. The home court advantage and their strong record at the Ford Center against non-conference opponents give them an edge. However, UT-Arlington's defensive prowess and recent form suggest a close contest. The total points are likely to be around the 141.5 mark, with a slight lean towards the over due to the high-scoring nature of both teams' recent games.
Predicted Score: Evansville Purple Aces 72, UT-Arlington Mavericks 69