Match Analysis: DePaul Blue Demons vs Gardner-Webb Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 18, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Chicago, IL
Game Overview
DePaul Blue Demons host Gardner-Webb Bulldogs in a non-conference matchup featuring a significant talent and experience disparity. DePaul enters as heavy favorites with a 21-point spread, reflecting their status as a major conference program versus a mid-major opponent. This marks only the second meeting between these programs since 1997, with Gardner-Webb winning the last encounter 71-59 in 2012. DePaul's head coach Chris Holtmann has history with Gardner-Webb, having served as the program's head coach from 2010-2013 before advancing to Butler and Ohio State.
Key Factors to Consider
- DePaul enters the season struggling with back-to-back home losses to Buffalo (79-81) and Northwestern (81-79), though they showed improvement in the Northwestern loss with prized freshman guard Kruz McClure scoring 15 points off the bench and 7-foot-2 freshman Fabian Flores contributing 6 points and 8 rebounds. Gardner-Webb is integrating 11 new players and has won just one game while dropping road contests at Minnesota, Clemson, and Elon. Their only home game resulted in a 92-81 loss to Division II North Greenville, indicating significant offensive struggles.
- Gardner-Webb holds a 1-0 advantage in the all-time series, defeating DePaul 71-59 on November 15, 2012, in an away game. These teams have not met in the last three seasons, suggesting Gardner-Webb's 2012 victory occurred early in their program history against DePaul. DePaul is 0-1 at home against Gardner-Webb historically.
- Information regarding specific injuries is not available in current data.
- Gardner-Webb plays at a fast tempo ranked among the top 65 nationally per KenPom, which could create transition opportunities but also lead to higher scoring pace. DePaul's home court advantage is minimal given recent home losses. The Blue Demons are likely to have superior depth and athletic ability.
- Holtmann has stated 'I just owe so much to that school' regarding Gardner-Webb, potentially creating emotional investment despite DePaul's heavy favorite status. DePaul will seek to bounce back from consecutive home losses, while Gardner-Webb aims to secure a road victory against a high-major program to build confidence during their player integration phase.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | DePaul -5000 / Gardner-Webb +1450 | DePaul Blue Demons moneyline | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | DePaul -21.5 (-105) / Gardner-Webb +21.5 (-115) | DePaul Blue Demons -21.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 (-110) / Under 153.5 (-110) | Over 153.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | DePaul Blue Demons -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 153.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 153.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
DePaul Blue Demons are strongly favored to win this matchup decisively. The 21-point spread reflects significant talent and experience disparity between a major conference team and a mid-major program struggling with integration of 11 new players. DePaul's recent home losses to Buffalo and Northwestern were competitive, suggesting they can execute at home. Gardner-Webb's historical upset in 2012 should not overshadow the current roster composition and development stage differences. Expect DePaul to control pace, leverage superior athleticism, and win comfortably.
Predicted Score: DePaul 81, Gardner-Webb 58