Match Analysis: Morgan St Bears vs North Carolina A&T Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 19, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Talmadge L. Hill Field House, Baltimore
Game Overview
This matchup features North Carolina A&T Aggies (2-1 record) traveling to face Morgan State Bears (1-3 record) in a Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference contest. NC A&T enters as the slight favorite despite being the road team, reflecting their superior record and recent performance. Morgan State is struggling early in the season with three losses in their last four games, while NC A&T has shown more consistency. The Aggies average 78.5 points per game with a defensive output of 76.5 points allowed, demonstrating balanced offensive capability. Morgan State's offensive struggles are evident with inconsistent scoring patterns across their recent games.
Key Factors to Consider
- NC A&T has performed better early in the season with a 2-1 record compared to Morgan State's 1-3 mark. The Aggies won convincingly against South Carolina State (85-62) and Washington Adventist (89-83), showing they can compete against various competition levels. Morgan State's only recent victory came against Howard Bison (91-90), a narrow win that suggests they are capable but inconsistent. NC A&T's scoring efficiency (78.5 PPG) compared to Morgan State's defensive vulnerabilities make the Aggies an attractive pick. Notably, Morgan State has failed to cover the spread in their recent games, going 0-3 in their last five contests, which raises concerns about their ability to compete.
- Historical records show NC A&T leads the all-time series with 4 wins compared to Morgan State's 0 wins in recent matchups. The most recent meeting on November 21, 2024, saw NC A&T defeat Morgan State 86-83, indicating the Aggies have established dominance in this rivalry. This historical advantage combined with NC A&T's current form suggests continuity in their favor.
- The search results do not provide specific injury information for either team. This represents a significant unknown factor that could impact game dynamics, particularly given Morgan State's already depleted performance.
- The game is played at Morgan State's home venue (Talmadge L. Hill Field House in Baltimore), providing the Bears with home-court advantage. However, this advantage appears insufficient to overcome their performance issues. Public betting data shows 100% of bets going toward NC A&T, indicating strong market confidence in the Aggies, though this could represent contrarian value if Morgan State performs above expectations.
- Morgan State faces significant pressure to improve their 1-3 record and establish home-court credibility. Playing at home should provide motivational benefits. Conversely, NC A&T seeks to maintain momentum and improve to 3-1, which could drive their performance. The conference implications of this MEAC matchup add significance for both programs' tournament positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morgan St -105 / NC A&T -115 | North Carolina A&T Aggies ML Win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Morgan St +1.5 (-118) / NC A&T -1.5 (-102) | North Carolina A&T -1.5 Cover | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 159.5 (-105) / Under 159.5 (-115) | Under 159.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Carolina A&T Aggies -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 159.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: North Carolina A&T Aggies at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
North Carolina A&T Aggies are predicted to win this contest with a projected score of 80-75 (or similar margin). The Aggies' superior record, better offensive efficiency, head-to-head advantage, and consistent recent performance outweigh Morgan State's home-court benefit. Morgan State's recent inability to cover spreads and inconsistent scoring patterns suggest they will struggle to keep pace with NC A&T's more reliable offensive execution. The visiting Aggies should control the tempo and convert their opportunities more efficiently than the struggling Bears.
Predicted Score: North Carolina A&T 80, Morgan State 75