Match Analysis: Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-29
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: Empower Field, Denver, CO
Game Overview
The Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC divisional game with playoff implications. The Broncos are underperforming at 1-2 but have home field advantage, while the Bengals are 2-1, having suffered a heavy 48-10 loss to the Vikings last week but generally showing more consistent offense and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Broncos are 1-2 overall and 1-0 at home but have lost their last two games. The Bengals are 2-1 but were badly beaten last week. Denver's defense is struggling, but their offense at home remains competent. Bengals are missing QB Joe Burrow, significantly weakening their offense.
- Recent head-to-head data suggests Denver has had competitive games versus Cincinnati, but Bengals tend to have an edge when fully healthy. This season Bengals have not shown dominant away form.
- Bengals starting QB Joe Burrow is out with a toe injury, severely limiting their passing attack. TE Noah Fant is doubtful with concussion for Bengals. Broncos have LB Dre Greenlaw and DT Malcolm Roach out, affecting their defense.
- Denver is playing at home at a high altitude, which could affect the Bengals' stamina and performance. Weather forecasts are clear, no external disruptions expected. The game has AFC playoff implications, increasing stakes for both teams.
- Both teams are motivated, but Broncos have a stronger urgency to rebound from consecutive losses at home, while Bengals need to adapt without Burrow to stay competitive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Denver Broncos -470, Cincinnati Bengals +360 | Denver Broncos | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Denver Broncos -7.5 -110, Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 -110 | Denver Broncos -7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 44.5 -105, Under 44.5 -115 | Under 44.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Denver Broncos -9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 44.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 44.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denver Broncos to win straight up given home advantage, Bengals' critical QB injury, and Broncos' urgency to bounce back after losses.
Predicted Score: Denver Broncos 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 14