Match Analysis: Everton vs West Ham United – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-29
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium
Game Overview
Everton and West Ham United face off with Everton slight home favorite following recent form and defensive solidity at home, despite their recent struggle for goals. West Ham have been underperforming, with poor away form and low motivation evidenced by their low league points. Everton aims to capitalize on home advantage and a more stable squad, while West Ham battles to recover momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Everton holds a 2-1-2 overall record with a clean defensive record at home (3 clean sheets in last home games), though goals scored have been sparse recently (1 goal in last 3 matches). West Ham has a poor run (1-0-4) and zero away points so far, with a tendency toward low-scoring games especially on the road.
- Recent meetings favor Everton, who won the last fixture 2-0 and have shown a higher probability of winning historically in this matchup.
- Everton's defender Jarrad Branthwaite is still unavailable but nearing return; no major absences for West Ham noted, suggesting Everton's defense, while slightly weakened, remains relatively intact.
- Everton playing at home in the newly utilized Hill Dickinson Stadium with solid home defensive form may add psychological advantage. West Ham's recent cup performance and league form indicate low morale.
- Everton is motivated to rebound from recent disappointments, looking to improve league standing and build momentum. West Ham, sitting low on points and with poor away form, has less motivation and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Everton: -151, West Ham United: 390, Draw: 280 | Everton | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | Everton -0.5: -154, West Ham +50: 116 | Everton -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -112, Under 2.5: -118 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Everton -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Everton to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, and the match to finish under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0
