Match Analysis: Long Beach St 49ers vs Illinois St Redbirds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Walter Pyramid, Long Beach, CA
Game Overview
The Illinois State Redbirds (1-2) travel to Long Beach to face the Long Beach State 49ers (0-3) in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Illinois State enters as a significant favorite despite recent struggles, coming off an 87-67 road loss to USC. Long Beach State is winless on the season and will be playing their home opener, providing potential motivation. This matchup features a clear talent disparity with the Redbirds being favored by approximately 6.5-7.5 points across different sportsbooks.
Key Factors to Consider
- Illinois State has a 1-2 record with their only win coming before recent losses. The Redbirds are averaging 70.3 points per game with 7.3 made three-pointers, showing balanced offensive output. Ty'Reek Coleman leads the team with 14.3 points per game and 16 points in their last outing, while Johnny Kinziger contributed 15 points against USC. Long Beach State has lost all three games this season, including a 77-45 defeat to San Diego State and a 82-62 loss to Fresno State. Their most recent game saw them lose 69-66 to Pacific. Petar Majstorovic has been their leading contributor with a double-double (13 points, 10 rebounds) against San Diego State.
- Illinois State defeated Long Beach State 61-52 in their last meeting in 2023, demonstrating the Redbirds' historical dominance over the 49ers.
- No specific injury information is available in the current data.
- Long Beach State is playing their home opener, which traditionally provides an advantage and momentum boost. The Walter Pyramid's home court advantage may provide some support for the 49ers. Illinois State is playing on the road and has a 0-1 road record to start the season.
- Long Beach State will be motivated by playing at home for the first time this season after three consecutive road losses. Illinois State, despite being favored, will be looking to bounce back from their loss to USC and improve their road record. The Redbirds have won four of their last five day games against non-conference opponents, suggesting they perform well in afternoon/early evening contests.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St Redbirds: -315 | Long Beach St 49ers: 255 | Illinois State Redbirds Win | β β β β β 71% |
| Spread | Illinois St Redbirds: -7.5 -102 | Long Beach St 49ers: 7.5 -120 | Illinois State covers -7.5 spread | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5 -112 | Under 143.5 -108 | Under 143.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Illinois St Redbirds 152% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Illinois St Redbirds at 152% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 59.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Illinois State Redbirds are expected to win this matchup convincingly. Multiple analytical models predict an Illinois State victory, with the Redbirds covering the spread. The team's superior performance metrics, experience, and recent history against Long Beach State support this outcome. However, some analysis suggests Long Beach State may cover the spread due to home court advantage and the Redbirds' current inconsistency.
Predicted Score: Illinois State Redbirds 70, Long Beach State 49ers 65