Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs Atlanta United FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, NJ
Game Overview
New England Revolution (8-8-15) hosts Atlanta United FC (5-12-13) in a crucial MLS clash where both teams have struggled with consistency this season. New England ranks 20th in expected goals with a negative goal differential and middling defensive stats, while Atlanta shows similar inconsistency with a worse goal differential. The game is expected to be competitive with moderate scoring.
Key Factors to Consider
- New England Revolution average 1.03 points per game with 39 goals scored and 45 conceded (1.45 G/90). Atlanta United averages slightly lower points (0.90) with a worse goal differential (-18) and similar scoring rate.
- The sides have a marginal edge for New England with better recent form and points. Both teams have comparable historical results and similar win/draw/loss percentages, making the matchup tight.
- No critical injuries reported that significantly affect starting lineups; key players expected to start including New England's goalkeeper Matt Turner and Atlanta's Jayden Hibbert.
- Match played at neutral venue in Harrison, NJ, slightly diluting traditional home advantage. Weather and pitch expected to be neutral with no major disruptions.
- New England has slightly more motivation to improve standings and secure playoff spots, while Atlanta has shown less consistency and lower motivational impetus at this stage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | 107 | New England Revolution | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | New England Revolution -0.5 102 | New England Revolution -0.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Over/under | Under 3.5 -169 | Under 3.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New England Revolution 14% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New England Revolution at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New England Revolution moneyline win
Predicted Score: 2-1