Match Analysis: New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Sports Illustrated Stadium
Game Overview
The New York Red Bulls host New York City FC in an MLS match that pits a mid-table home side against a well-performing visiting team. NYCFC leads the league with 53 points and a strong recent form, while Red Bulls have shown inconsistency but have home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- NYCFC holds a superior overall record (16-5-9) and more points (53) compared to Red Bulls (12-7-12, 43 points). NYCFC is undefeated at home and decent away, while Red Bulls are stronger at home but inconsistent overall. Recently, NYCFC has won 4 of their last 6 matches, Red Bulls are inconsistent with mixed results.
- Historically, Red Bulls have a slight edge with 6 wins to NYCFC's 5 in recent matchups, with 1 draw. However, NYCFC has been in better form lately in direct encounters.
- No critical injury information is reported for either team affecting key starters.
- Game is at Red Bullsβ home stadium, which improves Red Bulls' chances. Weather and pitch conditions are assumed normal. There are no notable external disruptions.
- NYCFC is motivated to maintain their top position in the league and is pushing for playoff seeding. Red Bulls seek to improve their position and exploit home advantage.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Red Bulls: 126, New York City FC: 195, Draw: 260 | New York Red Bulls | β β β ββ 63% |
Spread | New York Red Bulls (-0.5): 120, New York City FC (+50): -159 | New York Red Bulls -0.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -145, Under 2.5: 109 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Red Bulls 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the odds and analysis, the highest expected value play is a Red Bulls moneyline win, capitalizing on home advantage and favorable odds.
Predicted Score: 1-0