Match Analysis: Villarreal vs Athletic Bilbao – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal, Spain
Game Overview
Villarreal hosts Athletic Bilbao in a La Liga clash with Villarreal unbeaten at home this season (3-0-0) and Athletic Bilbao showing mixed form away. Villarreal is stronger overall in recent matches and holds a slight points advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal has a 4-1-1 overall record with 13 points, showing good momentum and consistency at home. Athletic Bilbao holds a 3-1-2 record with 10 points and has been somewhat inconsistent, especially away (1-0-1). Villarreal is also 2-0-1 against the spread at home whereas Athletic Bilbao struggles ATS on the road.
- Recent meetings have been fairly balanced, with two of the last three league games ending in draws. Villarreal tends to have a slight edge at home historically, but Athletic Bilbao remains competitive.
- No critical injuries reported for either side that would significantly affect starting lineups or tactical setup.
- No major external disruptions or unusual conditions. The match is played at Villarreal's home stadium under normal circumstances.
- Villarreal aims to consolidate their strong home form to stay in the upper half of the table, while Athletic Bilbao seeks to improve inconsistency and gain points on the road.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -110 | Villarreal | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | -125 | Villarreal -0.25 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | -122 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal 22% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Villarreal at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal moneyline (win)
Predicted Score: 1-0