Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Utah Valley Wolverines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs host the Utah Valley Wolverines in a non-conference matchup on November 16, 2025. Both teams enter with mixed records, with Utah Valley at 2-1 and Fresno State at 2-2. The game is scheduled for 10:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on MW Network. The matchup features contrasting trends, with Utah Valley favored on the road and both teams showing recent scoring volatility.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah Valley averages 94.7 points per game (39th nationally) and allows 65.3 points per game (86th nationally), boasting a +29.4-point differential and the 17th-best field goal percentage. Fresno State has struggled defensively, with totals going over in 2 of their last 3 games and 2 of their last 3 at home. Utah Valley has superior shooting and offensive efficiency, while Fresno State has shown inconsistency, especially in night games against non-conference opponents.
- Utah Valley has lost 7 of its last 8 games against Mountain West Conference teams, including Fresno State. The home team has won each of Utah Valleyβs last four games. Fresno State has lost 7 of its last 8 night games against non-conference opponents and has lost the first half in 8 of its last 10 such games.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Utah Valley is playing its second consecutive road game, having lost their only road contest this season. Fresno State is playing their fourth consecutive home game to start the season. The game is being played at Save Mart Center, a venue where Fresno State has shown mixed results.
- Utah Valley is coming off a 31-point home victory and is looking to maintain momentum on the road. Fresno State is coming off a home defeat and is seeking to rebound in front of their home crowd.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: 125, Utah Valley Wolverines: -155 | Utah Valley Wolverines | Not available |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: 2.5 -102, Utah Valley Wolverines: -2.5 -118 | Utah Valley Wolverines | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 154.5 -110, Under: 154.5 -110 | Over | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Valley Wolverines 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 154.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 154.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah Valley is favored to win this matchup due to their superior offensive efficiency, recent form, and strong shooting percentages. The Wolverines are expected to cover the spread, and the game is likely to go over the total points line given both teams' scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities.
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 80, Fresno State 75