Match Analysis: Elon Phoenix vs Gardner-Webb Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Schar Center, Elon, NC
Game Overview
Elon Phoenix (2-1) hosts Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (0-3) in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Elon enters with strong offensive production (93.3 PPG, 44.2% FG) but defensive vulnerabilities, especially allowing high shooting percentages. Gardner-Webb struggles offensively (66.7 PPG, 38.7% FG) and defensively, with poor shooting efficiency and rebounding. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with Elon favored by double digits.
Key Factors to Consider
- Elon averages 93.3 PPG (280 points in 3 games) and 42.0 rebounds per game, shooting 44.2% from the field and 28.9% from three. They allow opponents to shoot 54.1% from the floor in their last game. Gardner-Webb averages 66.7 PPG (325th nationally), shooting 38.7% from the field and 29.2% from three. They allow 92.0 PPG and struggle with turnovers and rebounding. Elonβs offensive efficiency (1.164) is far superior to Gardner-Webbβs (0.815).
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. However, Elon has won six straight non-conference home games, while Gardner-Webb has lost 16 of its last 17 road non-conference games.
- No injury reports are available for either team.
- Elon has a strong home-court advantage at Schar Center, having won their last six non-conference home games. Gardner-Webb is 0-3 on the road this season and has struggled in away games historically. The game is expected to be played at a fast pace, with both teams prone to allowing high scoring.
- Elon is motivated to maintain their strong start and home dominance. Gardner-Webb is seeking their first win of the season and will be highly motivated to break their losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elon Phoenix: -455, Gardner-Webb Bulldogs: 350 | Elon Phoenix | β β β β β 90% |
| Spread | Elon Phoenix: -10.5 -115, Gardner-Webb Bulldogs: 10.5 -105 | Elon Phoenix -10.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 149.5 -105, Under: 149.5 -115 | Over 149.5 | β β β β β 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elon Phoenix 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 149.5 37% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Elon Phoenix is heavily favored to win this game due to their superior offensive production, home-court advantage, and Gardner-Webbβs struggles on the road and defensively. The game is likely to be high-scoring, with Elon covering the spread and the total going over 149.5 points.
Predicted Score: Elon Phoenix 95 – 68 Gardner-Webb Bulldogs