Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 11:41 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets in a late September pivotal matchup with playoff positioning on the line. Cubs (89-69) bring reliable pitching in Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.17), while the Mets (81-77) start rookie Nolan McLean, boasting a stellar 1.27 ERA. The betting market shows near parity, with both moneyline odds at -108 and total runs at 7.5, highlighting expectations for a close, low-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cubs have an overall better record (89-69) and strong home performance (47-30), but have shown some recent inconsistency. Mets are solid but have stumbled late in the season with an 81-77 record and notably rely on McLean's outstanding pitching to stay competitive.
- Previous encounters this season have been competitive, with the pitching matchup favoring the Mets due to McLeanβs exceptional ERA and dominant recent form compared to the Cubsβ Imanaga.
- No significant injuries reported affecting starting pitching or key lineup players for either team, preserving regular strength.
- Game played at Wrigley Field, where the Cubs have a strong home advantage; weather and other conditions do not present notable impacts.
- Both teams fighting for postseason relevance, the Cubs aiming to solidify playoff seeding, Mets seeking to secure a wild card spot, increasing the stakes and intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -108 | New York Mets | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | -192 (Chicago Cubs +1.5), 158 (New York Mets -1.5) | New York Mets -1.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Over/under | -110 | Under 7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets Moneyline
Predicted Score: Mets 3 – Cubs 2