Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 11:07 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto
Game Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays (90-68) host the Boston Red Sox (87-71) in the final game of their three-game series. The Red Sox currently lead the series 2-0 after convincing wins, including a dominant 7-1 victory on September 24. This game is pivotal for Toronto to avoid a series sweep and for Boston to solidify their late-season momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto excels at home with a 50-27 record and has a .265 batting average overall. Their pitching has a 4.24 ERA and includes starter Louis Varland with a solid 3.10 ERA. Boston has been strong on the road (41-39) and leads recent head-to-heads but is underperforming as a moneyline underdog with a 41.4% win rate in such scenarios this season.
- Boston leads the recent matchups 3-1 in the last four meetings and 3-2 in their past five visits to Toronto, including two wins earlier this series taking the first two games decisively.
- No major injuries reported affecting starting lineups or pitching staffs for either team.
- No significant weather or field conditions expected to affect gameplay. Rogers Centre favors hitters slightly but the under total has been competitive this season with both teams showing tendencies around the line.
- Blue Jays are highly motivated to avoid a sweep and close the season strongly to contend for playoff positioning. The Red Sox, riding momentum and on a winning streak over Toronto, are motivated to maintain dominance and increase confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays: -132, Boston Red Sox: +112 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5: +164, Boston Red Sox +1.5: -200 | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8: -115, Under 8: -105 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline, covering the spread, and the total to go under 8 runs
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4 – Boston Red Sox 2