Match Analysis: UT-Arlington Mavericks vs Missouri St Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
Game Overview
The UT-Arlington Mavericks host the Missouri State Bears in a non-conference NCAAB matchup on Saturday, November 15, 2025. Both teams enter with 2-1 records, but their recent performances and statistical profiles suggest a competitive game with a slight edge to the home side. The betting market favors UT-Arlington, with the spread set at -2.5 and the total at 146.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State has shown offensive efficiency, averaging 85.0 points per game and posting a strong effective field goal percentage (51.8%). However, their defense has been porous, allowing 86.0 points per game and struggling on the boards. UT-Arlington has been dominant defensively, allowing just 74.0 points per game and boasting a defensive rebound percentage of 77.4%. Their offense is less efficient, with a lower effective FG% (38.2%) and higher turnover rate (26.7%). Missouri Stateβs recent loss was marred by poor rebounding and free-throw shooting, while UT-Arlingtonβs last game was a blowout win, with Raysean Seamster leading the way.
- Recent head-to-head matchups show UT-Arlington has won 14 of its last 18 home games against non-AP-ranked opponents. Missouri State has lost each of its last seven road games following a home loss. The last five meetings have been split, with UT-Arlington winning the most recent encounter by 10 points.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is played at College Park Center, a venue where UT-Arlington has a strong home record. The Mavericks have a clear edge in home-court advantage, especially against unranked opponents. Missouri Stateβs recent struggles on the road and after home losses are notable.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. UT-Arlington seeks to continue its home dominance, while Missouri State aims to bounce back from a disappointing loss and prove its ability to compete away from home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri St Bears: 130, UT-Arlington Mavericks: -155 | UT-Arlington Mavericks | Not available |
| Spread | Missouri St Bears: 2.5 -105, UT-Arlington Mavericks: -2.5 -115 | UT-Arlington Mavericks -2.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -108, Under: 146.5 -112 | Over 146.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UT-Arlington Mavericks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UT-Arlington is favored to win this matchup, leveraging their defensive strength and home-court advantage. Missouri Stateβs offensive firepower could keep the game close, but their defensive and rebounding issues may prove costly. The total points are likely to be near the line, with both teams capable of scoring but also prone to turnovers and defensive lapses.
Predicted Score: UT-Arlington Mavericks 75, Missouri State Bears 72