Match Analysis: Denver Pioneers vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hamilton Gymnasium, Denver, Colorado
Game Overview
Both the Denver Pioneers (1-2) and UTSA Roadrunners (1-2) enter this matchup seeking to break even on their seasons after disappointing starts. This is only the fourth all-time meeting between these programs and the first since 2021. Denver is in their inaugural season under head coach Tim Bergstraser (former MSU Moorhead coach), while UTSA looks to capitalize on their historically strong series record. The game carries significance as both teams need a win to stabilize their early-season trajectories in what appears to be competitive, evenly-matched squads.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denver opened their season with losses to Seattle and ranked Washington before recovering with a narrow 75-73 road win at Montana State. UTSA has alternated results, winning 97-30 against Cobs, then losing 77-60 to SIUE and 80-69 to Texas State. Denver's offensive output averages 72.7 points per game while allowing 80.3, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. UTSA averages 62.3 points per game allowed, showing better defensive discipline. Both teams are operating at relatively modest scoring outputs, suggesting a defensive-oriented contest. Denver's recent win over Montana State (a two-point comeback) demonstrates resilience, while UTSA's loss to in-state rival Texas State suggests potential inconsistency.
- UTSA leads the all-time series 2-1 with one neutral meeting. In their most recent matchup on November 16, 2021, UTSA dominated 78-64 with a dominant 18-3 second-half run, led by Jordan Ivy-Curry's 27-point performance. However, Denver holds the home-court advantage in this series, having defeated UTSA 75-50 in 2013 at Hamilton Gymnasium. This marks Denver's first opportunity to even the series at home in 12 years, and UTSA will be motivated to improve their 0-1 away record versus the Pioneers.
- No specific injury information is available from the provided search results. This represents a data gap that could significantly influence game dynamics, particularly regarding bench depth and rotation availability for both teams.
- The game is broadcast on Summit League Network, limiting mainstream exposure. The 1 PM CT (12 PM MT) tipoff is relatively early for a Saturday, which could affect crowd energy and player focus. Denver's new coaching regime under Bergstraser adds an element of unpredictability, as the program adapts to fresh tactical approaches. UTSA travels from San Antonio to Denver's high altitude (one mile elevation), which historically favors the home team in basketball despite being less impactful than in other sports.
- Both teams desperately need a win to improve from 1-2 records and establish positive momentum heading into conference play. Denver seeks validation under their new coach, while UTSA aims to assert dominance in the series and prove their previous home victory over Denver (2021) wasn't a fluke. UTSA also faces the challenge of proving they belong against Power Five-adjacent opponents after losses to Texas State and SIUE.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver -166 | UTSA +140 | Denver Pioneers Victory | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Denver -3.5 (-102) | UTSA +3.5 (-118) | Denver covers -3.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
| Over/under | Over 149.5 (-108) | Under 149.5 (-112) | Under 149.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Pioneers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 149.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 149.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Denver Pioneers win 71-68. The home court advantage, combined with Denver's recent resilience in close games (Montana State comeback) and UTSA's road struggles (0-1 away in series), gives Denver a slight edge. However, UTSA's superior defensive efficiency and historical series dominance keep this extremely competitive. The game is likely to be low-scoring due to both teams' defensive capabilities and modest offensive outputs this season.
Predicted Score: Denver 71, UTSA 68