Match Analysis: SMU Mustangs vs Butler Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Moody Coliseum, Dallas
Game Overview
The SMU Mustangs host the Butler Bulldogs in a highly anticipated NCAA basketball matchup, both teams undefeated at 3-0. SMU is favored at home with a mix of high-paced offense and solid efficiency, while Butler brings balanced scoring and strong rebounding. The game is expected to be competitive with notable offensive firepower on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- SMU is known for their high offensive efficiency (ranked ~39th nationally) and a fast-paced style, averaging around 96 points recently. Butler is balanced offensively with proficient three-point shooting (38%), effective inside scoring, and strong ball movement (60 assists in first three games). Both teams have undefeated records and demonstrated scoring ability, with SMU scoring high in recent games (102 points vs Murray State).
- No recent direct matchups data for 2025 season, but historical context favors SMU slightly due to home advantage and stronger schedule faced. SMUβs defense has shown some vulnerabilities, which Butlerβs efficient offense might exploit.
- No specific injuries reported in available data; both teams appear healthy and at full strength.
- Game location at Moody Coliseum gives SMU a home-court edge. Butler is playing its first road game of the season, which could impact their performance. Both teams have faced relatively weaker early-season opponents, so this is a bigger challenge for both.
- Both teams aim to maintain undefeated status early in the season, adding competitive motivation. SMU has home advantage and a top-heavy roster which may push them to pull away late. Butlerβs balanced attack and desire to prove themselves on the road provide strong incentive to keep the game close.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs: -365, Butler Bulldogs: 285 | SMU Mustangs to win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | SMU Mustangs: -7.5 -110, Butler Bulldogs: +7.5 -110 | SMU Mustangs to cover the -7.5 spread | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 168.5 -115, Under: 168.5 -105 | Over 168.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 168.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 168.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
SMU is favored to win a close, competitive game with a final score projection around 85-79. Confidence in SMU winning moneyline is high due to home advantage and offensive firepower, but the spread is tight and Butlerβs efficient scoring and rebounding suggest strong resistance. The total points line is close to the expected combined scoring, with a slight lean toward the over given recent high scores.
Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 85, Butler Bulldogs 79