Match Analysis: VMI Keydets vs Jacksonville Dolphins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Cameron Hall, Lexington, Virginia
Game Overview
VMI Keydets (3-1) host Jacksonville Dolphins (1-2) in a non-conference matchup on Saturday, November 15, 2025. The game is part of the ASUN/SoCon Challenge and will be broadcast on ESPN+. Both teams are coming off mixed results, with VMI showing a strong start to the season and Jacksonville struggling to find consistency. The matchup features two mid-major programs with similar offensive and defensive profiles, making it a tightly contested game with betting lines reflecting a close contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- VMI ranks 194th in college basketball offensively (73.3 PPG) and 211th defensively (73.1 PPG allowed). Jacksonville is 228th in scoring (72.1 PPG) and 160th in defense (71.5 PPG allowed). Both teams are below average in field goal percentage (VMI 42.6%, Jacksonville 44.2%) and turnover management (VMI 11.3, Jacksonville 12.6). VMI has a slight edge in home record (2-0) and overall performance, while Jacksonville has struggled away from home (0-2).
- Recent head-to-head matchups show VMI has dominated, winning the last three meetings. Most recently, VMI beat Jacksonville by 10 points (73-62) in March 2025. VMI has covered the spread in all three of those games, and the total has gone under in two of the last three matchups.
- Jacksonville is missing key guard Bradley Jr. (undisclosed injury), which could impact their backcourt depth and scoring. VMI has no reported injuries.
- The game is being played at Cameron Hall, VMI's home court, which is known for its loud and supportive atmosphere. Jacksonville is 0-2 on the road this season, while VMI is 2-0 at home. The weather is not a factor for indoor basketball.
- VMI is looking to maintain its strong start and build momentum for conference play. Jacksonville is seeking its first road win and a boost in confidence after a tough start to the season. Both teams are motivated to prove themselves in a non-conference matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | VMI -130, Jacksonville +110 | VMI | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | VMI -1.5 -118, Jacksonville +1.5 -102 | VMI -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5 -112, Under 151.5 -108 | Under | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | VMI Keydets -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
VMI is favored to win this game, but the matchup is expected to be close. Jacksonville's injury to Bradley Jr. and their struggles on the road are significant factors. The game is likely to be low-scoring, with both teams struggling to generate consistent offense. VMI's home advantage and recent dominance over Jacksonville give them the edge, but Jacksonville could keep it close if they can limit turnovers and capitalize on VMI's defensive weaknesses.
Predicted Score: VMI 72, Jacksonville 70