Match Analysis: Montana Grizzlies vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dahlberg Arena, Missoula, MT
Game Overview
Montana Grizzlies (3-1 SU) host Cal Poly Mustangs (2-2 SU) in an NCAA Division I Men's Basketball matchup. Montana enters as heavy favorites with a 6-point spread, backed by a strong recent performance including a notable win against UNLV. Cal Poly comes in as a road underdog seeking to upset the home team after mixed results in their first four games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Montana has demonstrated strong form with a 3-1 record, including impressive wins over Northwest Indian College (+65), Ottawa University (+34), and UNLV (+9), though they suffered a 23-point loss to Stanford. Cal Poly is 2-2 with wins over Pacific Lutheran (+22) and Seattle (+2), but losses to USC (-30) and Colorado State (-14). Montana's consistency and home-court advantage are significant advantages, while Cal Poly shows volatility in performance margins.
- Historical matchup data between these programs is limited in the provided search results. This appears to be a non-conference matchup with no recent H2H history available for analysis.
- No injury information is available in the provided search results. Current roster health status for either team cannot be determined.
- Montana plays at home in Missoula where they have shown strong performance (3-1 record includes two dominant home wins). Cal Poly is playing on the road where they have struggled (1-1 record). Home-court advantage typically favors Montana significantly.
- Montana seeks to maintain their strong start to the season against a struggling road team. Cal Poly is motivated to bounce back after a 14-point loss to Colorado State and prove they can compete against quality opposition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montana -230 | Cal Poly +184 | Montana Grizzlies Win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Montana -4.5 (-118) | Cal Poly +4.5 (-102) | Montana -4.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 170.5 (-114) | Under 170.5 (-112) | Over 170.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montana Grizzlies 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 170.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Montana Grizzlies at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montana Grizzlies are favored to win. The combination of home-court advantage, superior record, strong recent form, and significant betting line (6-point spread, -230 moneyline) all support a Montana victory. However, the magnitude of the spread suggests a close game that Montana should control.
Predicted Score: Montana 78, Cal Poly 72