Match Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Xavier Musketeers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City
Game Overview
This NCAAB matchup features the Iowa Hawkeyes (2-0) hosting the Xavier Musketeers (2-1) at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Iowa enters as a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -16.5 and the total at 142.5. The game is scheduled for Friday, November 14, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET (01:00 UTC on November 15). The Hawkeyes have started the season strong, averaging 89.0 points per game and holding opponents to just 63.5 points, while Xavier has struggled offensively, averaging 69.3 points per game and shooting below 37% from the field. The game will be broadcast on FS1.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa has been dominant through two games, averaging 89.0 points per game on 56.7% shooting and allowing only 63.5 points per game. Bennett Stirtz leads the Hawkeyes with 21.5 points and 6.5 assists per game, while Alvaro Folgueiras adds 12.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game. Xavier, on the other hand, is averaging 69.3 points per game and shooting 36.9% from the floor. The Musketeers have struggled with offensive consistency and have given up 52.2% shooting to opponents. Their defense has been a concern, and they have not faced a high-major opponent with the athleticism of Iowa yet.
- There is no recent head-to-head data available for this matchup. The teams have not played each other in the past few seasons.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Iowa's home court advantage at Carver-Hawkeye Arena is a significant factor, with the Hawkeyes having won their first two home games by large margins. The venue is known for its loud and supportive crowd, which can impact visiting teams. The game is being played on a Friday night, which may affect team preparation and travel schedules.
- Iowa is looking to maintain their strong start to the season and continue their winning streak. Xavier is coming off their first loss of the season and will be motivated to bounce back and prove themselves against a high-major opponent. The game is an early-season test for both teams, with implications for their non-conference records and potential tournament seeding.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes: -2100, Xavier Musketeers: 1000 | Iowa Hawkeyes | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes: -16.5, Xavier Musketeers: 16.5 | Iowa Hawkeyes -16.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 142.5, Under: 142.5 | Under 142.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 142.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 142.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa is expected to win this game comfortably, given their strong start to the season, superior offensive and defensive statistics, and home court advantage. Xavier's offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities make it difficult for them to keep up with Iowa's pace and efficiency. The Hawkeyes are likely to control the tempo and generate clean looks, while Xavier may have trouble stringing together scoring possessions. The game is projected to be a low-possession, defensive battle, with Iowa covering the spread and the total likely to go under.
Predicted Score: Iowa Hawkeyes 83, Xavier Musketeers 64