Match Analysis: Ole Miss Rebels vs CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: C.M. 'Tad' Smith Coliseum, Oxford, MS
Game Overview
The undefeated Ole Miss Rebels (3-0) host the CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (2-1) in a non-conference matchup. Ole Miss enters as heavy favorites with a dominant home record and superior offensive efficiency. The Roadrunners are traveling to Oxford on short notice after consecutive home wins, but face a significant step up in competition against a Rebels team that has scored 83+ points in all three games this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ole Miss is shooting 50.0% from the field (ranked 68th nationally) and 72.4% from the free throw line while averaging 85.7 points per game. The Rebels are efficient on offense with 17.3 assists per game and are forcing just 10.0 turnovers per contest. CSU Bakersfield averages 72.3 points per game on 40.7% shooting with a concerning 28.0% three-point percentage. The Roadrunners allow 68.7 points per game defensively but will face a Rebels offense that is significantly more potent. Bakersfield's main scoring threats are CJ Hardy (14.3 PPG on 56.5% shooting) and Malik Dia (14.7 PPG), but Ole Miss counters with balanced scoring and superior ball movement.
- These teams have no recent history in the search results. However, Ole Miss has won each of its last nine games against non-conference opponents at home, establishing a strong home-court advantage. CSU Bakersfield has lost three of its last four games against non-conference opponents and has struggled on the road, losing the first half in nine of its last 10 road games against non-conference opponents.
- No specific injury reports are available in the provided search results.
- Ole Miss has maintained a perfect 3-0 home record with all victories at C.M. 'Tad' Smith Coliseum. The Roadrunners are traveling to a hostile environment after back-to-back home wins, which may impact their performance. Ole Miss's recent performance includes a 51.9% shooting night with 61.5% from three-point range (8-of-13) against Memphis, demonstrating offensive firepower. The totals have gone over in all three of Ole Miss's home games this season.
- Ole Miss is motivated to extend their undefeated record and continue their home dominance. CSU Bakersfield is motivated by consecutive wins but faces a significant talent gap and road challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss -10000 / CSU Bakersfield +3000 | Ole Miss Rebels | β β β β β 94% |
| Spread | Ole Miss -25.5 (-110) / CSU Bakersfield +25.5 (-110) | Ole Miss Rebels -25.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 (-106) / Under 146.5 (-114) | Over 146.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ole Miss Rebels will win decisively. The Rebels' superior offensive efficiency, home-court advantage, strong ball movement (17.3 APG), and defensive prowess will overwhelm a Bakersfield team that struggles with outside shooting and road performance. Ole Miss's nine-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents and the Roadrunners' 0-3 record against non-conference road opponents strongly favor the home team. Bakersfield's balanced scoring approach cannot match Ole Miss's efficiency and depth.
Predicted Score: Ole Miss Rebels 89, CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners 62