Match Analysis: Drake Bulldogs vs SIU-Edwardsville Cougars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Knapp Center, Des Moines
Game Overview
This non-conference matchup features the Drake Bulldogs (2-1, 1-1 home) hosting the SIU-Edwardsville Cougars (2-1, 1-0 away). Both teams are off to solid starts, but Drake holds a clear edge in home-court advantage and betting market favoritism. The game is expected to be competitive, with the Bulldogs favored by 6.5 points and the total set at 139.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Drake has shown strong offensive efficiency, shooting 43% from the field and 65% from the free-throw line in recent games. SIU-Edwardsville is slightly better from the field (48%) but struggles at the line. Drakeβs recent totals have gone over in both home games, indicating a fast-paced, high-scoring style. SIU-Edwardsville has been inconsistent against the spread, losing both of their last two ATS.
- No recent head-to-head data is available, but historical trends for games with similar lines (home favorite by 5-7 points) show the home team wins outright 71.1% of the time and covers the spread 50.4% of the time.
- Drake is missing key player Larson (knee), which could impact their interior defense and rebounding. No major injuries reported for SIU-Edwardsville.
- Drakeβs home-court advantage at Knapp Center is significant, with a strong recent record at home. The public betting market is overwhelmingly backing Drake (100% of bets), but the moneyline odds suggest some sharp money may be on SIU-Edwardsville for value.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Drake will be motivated to protect their home court, while SIU-Edwardsville seeks a signature win to boost their profile.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Drake Bulldogs: -285, SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: 230 | Drake Bulldogs | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Drake Bulldogs: -6.5 -115, SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: 6.5 -105 | Drake Bulldogs -6.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 139.5 -110, Under: 139.5 -110 | Over 139.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Drake Bulldogs -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 139.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 139.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Drake is favored to win outright, but SIU-Edwardsvilleβs offensive efficiency and Drakeβs injury concerns make this a closer game than the spread suggests. The total is likely to go over, given both teamsβ recent scoring trends and Drakeβs home environment.
Predicted Score: Drake 78, SIU-Edwardsville 72