Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio
Game Overview
A Brasileirão Serie A match featuring mid-table Grêmio hosting Botafogo, a slightly more in-form team struggling for consistency. The game is poised to be competitive with both sides capable of scoring but showing defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo holds a better recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches versus Grêmio's 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 7. Botafogo also has a more positive goal difference recently and better away resilience.
- Recent H2H matches show an edge for Botafogo with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss against Grêmio in the last 5 meetings, including a recent away win. Matches tend to be low-scoring but competitive.
- Grêmio has some key defensive absences which may weaken their back line, while Botafogo has a relatively fit squad with no major injuries reported.
- The game is at Grêmio’s home Arena do Grêmio, potentially boosting their performance. Weather and pitch conditions expected to be neutral with no significant impact.
- Botafogo is slightly more motivated aiming for higher table positions and to consolidate form, while Grêmio is mid-table with less immediate pressure but inconsistent form may affect confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 155 | Botafogo | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Botafogo 0 -125 | Botafogo +0 (Draw No Bet) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 102 | Over 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Botafogo 22% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Botafogo at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-2
