Match Analysis: Nice vs AS Roma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Riviera
Game Overview
The Europa League group stage match between Nice and AS Roma promises a competitive encounter with both teams possessing quality squads. Nice will leverage their home advantage at Allianz Riviera, while Roma come in with a slightly stronger recent form and better squad depth.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nice's form is mixed with alternating wins and losses, showing inconsistency (L-W-L-W-L), averaging close to 1.5 goals per match with a solid defensive record conceding less than 1 per game. Roma have won 4 of their last 5 matches, showing better attacking efficiency and more consistent results.
- Recent H2H data shows a balanced matchup with the last competitive fixture ending 1-1. Roma held a slight edge in probability in previous meetings but did not dominate outright.
- No major injury news reported for either side that would severely impact their starting lineups or key player availability.
- Playing in the South of France at Allianz Riviera benefits Nice due to familiar conditions and local support. Travel and climate conditions favor the home side slightly.
- Both teams are motivated to secure early group stage points to improve chances of progressing. Nice will be particularly keen to capitalize on home advantage, while Roma aim to continue their winning momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AS Roma: 133, Nice: 212, Draw: 253 | AS Roma | β β β β β 70% |
Spread | AS Roma 0: -152, Nice 0: 122 | AS Roma 0 (Asian Handicap) | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -113, Under 2.5: -115 | Under 2.5 Goals | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AS Roma 28% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: AS Roma at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AS Roma to win on the moneyline, with under 2.5 goals expected to keep the match tight.
Predicted Score: 1-2