Match Analysis: Missouri Tigers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri
Game Overview
The Missouri Tigers host the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a pivotal SEC matchup on Saturday night. Missouri enters the game as a clear favorite, with a 6-3 overall record and a 2-2 mark in conference play, while Mississippi State sits at 5-5 and 0-4 in the SEC. Both teams suffered heavy losses last week, with Missouri losing 38-17 to Texas A&M and Mississippi State falling 41-21 to Georgia. The game is expected to feature a run-heavy approach from both sides, especially with uncertain quarterback situations, which could impact offensive output and game tempo.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri has averaged 50.6 points per game overall, with a slightly higher average at home (51.1). Their implied offensive total is 33.0, with a 5-4-0 ATS record. Mississippi State has averaged 56.8 points per game, with a slightly higher average on the road (59.0), but their implied offensive total is 36.0. Both teams have struggled offensively in recent weeks, with ineffective passing games and reliance on the run.
- Recent head-to-head matchups have been competitive, but Missouri has shown a slight edge in home games. Both teams have struggled in SEC play this season, with Missouri at 2-2 and Mississippi State at 0-4 in conference games.
- Both teams are dealing with uncertain quarterback situations, which could impact offensive production. Specific injuries are not detailed, but the lack of a clear starting QB for either team is a significant factor.
- The game will be played at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, a strong home environment for Missouri. The weather is expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play. The game will be broadcast on SEC Network and streamed on Fubo.
- Missouri is motivated to improve their SEC record and secure a bowl berth, while Mississippi State is looking to avoid a losing season and end their SEC losing streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers: -280, Mississippi State Bulldogs: 230 | Missouri Tigers | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | Missouri Tigers: -7.5 100, Mississippi State Bulldogs: 7.5 -122 | Missouri Tigers -7.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 51.5 -110, Under: 51.5 -110 | Under 51.5 | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 51.5 5% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri is favored to win this game, but the uncertain quarterback situations and recent offensive struggles suggest a lower-scoring, run-heavy contest. The spread is set at 7.5 points, reflecting Missouri's home advantage and recent form. The over/under is set at 51.5 points, with both teams averaging high totals but recent games suggesting a potential for a lower-scoring affair.
Predicted Score: Missouri Tigers 24, Mississippi State Bulldogs 17