Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs Utah State Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada
Game Overview
The UNLV Rebels (7-2) host the Utah State Aggies (5-4) in a Mountain West Conference matchup. UNLV is favored both on the moneyline and the spread. The total points line is set high at 71.5 points, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring affair. UNLV has shown stronger season performance and home dominance, while Utah State has struggled as a road underdog.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV holds a 7-2 overall record and performs well at home, averaging about 62.5 points when implied offensively, with a positive ATS record of 5-4 overall but weaker at home ATS (1-3). Utah State is 5-4, with a less potent offense and record of 2-2 in conference play. Utah State has recently lost multiple games as a road underdog.
- Though the home team has won Utah Stateโs last 13 games, recent road games favor Utah State with four wins in the last five matchups. However, Utah State has struggled to cover the spread on the road.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team ahead of this matchup.
- The game is at Allegiant Stadium, a home advantage for UNLV. Motivational factors include UNLVโs push to maintain their strong standing in the Mountain West and Utah Stateโs effort to perform against a favored opponent, though the Aggies have struggled covering the spread as underdogs on the road.
- UNLV looks motivated to leverage home-field advantage to secure a win and improve their conference position. Utah State seeks to upset the favored Rebels but faces historical challenges in similar situations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels: -220, Utah State Aggies: 184 | UNLV Rebels to win | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
| Spread | UNLV Rebels: -6.5 (-105), Utah State Aggies: +6.5 (-115) | UNLV Rebels to cover -6.5 | โ โ โ โโ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 71.5 (-105), Under: 71.5 (-115) | Under 71.5 points | โ โ โ โโ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 71.5 12% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 71.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNLV Rebels are expected to win the game, covering the spread with a moderately high confidence, given their stronger season record, home-field advantage, and Utah State's recent struggles as a road underdog.
Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 38 – Utah State Aggies 27