Match Analysis: New York Knicks vs Miami Heat – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-14
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City
Game Overview
The New York Knicks host the Miami Heat in a pivotal Eastern Conference matchup at Madison Square Garden. Both teams are trending above .500, with the Knicks boasting a strong home record and the Heat showing resilience on the road. The game is set for 7 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video, with the Knicks favored by 4.5 points and a high total of 234.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Knicks are 7-4 overall and 7-0 at home, averaging 125.0 points per game at the Garden. Their home defense has been stout, holding opponents to a low scoring margin. The Heat are 7-5 overall and 3-2-1 against the spread on the road, averaging 120.0 points per game away and allowing 119.5 points per game. Miamiβs road splits are below their overall level, and their defense has been inconsistent away from home.
- Recent head-to-head matchups show the Knicks have won 4 of their last 5 games against the Heat, including 4 of their last 5 against the spread. The totals have gone over in 4 of the Knicksβ last 5 games and 6 of their last 8 at home. The Heat have gone over the total in 8 of 12 games this season, both at home and on the road.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their full rosters.
- The game is being played at Madison Square Garden, a venue known for its energetic atmosphere and home-court advantage. The Knicksβ undefeated home record and the Heatβs road variance are significant factors. The high total reflects the pace and offensive efficiency of both teams.
- The Knicks are motivated to maintain their home dominance and improve their Eastern Conference standing. The Heat are looking to bounce back from recent road struggles and solidify their playoff position.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Knicks: -225, Heat: +185 | Knicks to win | β β β β β 71% |
| Spread | Knicks -4.5 (-120), Heat +4.5 (100) | Knicks -4.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
| Over/under | Over 234.5 (-110), Under 234.5 (-110) | Over 234.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Knicks 97% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 234.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New York Knicks at 97% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Knicks are favored to win this matchup, with a strong home record and a solid defense. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams averaging over 120 points per game. The Knicks are likely to cover the spread, but the Heatβs road resilience could keep the game close.
Predicted Score: Knicks 122, Heat 115