Match Analysis: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Green Bay Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-14
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Lee & Penny Anderson Arena, Saint Paul, MN
Game Overview
This NCAA basketball matchup features the St. Thomas (MN) Tommies hosting the Green Bay Phoenix. Both teams enter with identical 1-2 records, setting up a contest with evenly matched recent results. St. Thomas holds a strong home advantage, historically winning eight of Green Bay's last nine visits. Green Bay struggles on the road against unranked opponents, having lost their last 17 such games. The game is expected to be competitive, with St. Thomas favored to cover a sizable spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams started the season 1-2. St. Thomas lost their opener badly on the road at Saint Maryβs but shot well recently (45.3%) against Washington State, despite poor rebounding. Green Bay has struggled heavily in road games and against unranked opponents, losing their last 17 such away games. Both teams struggle against non-conference opponents, though St. Thomas has shown better home form.
- Historically, St. Thomas has dominated this matchup at home, winning eight of the last nine games against Green Bay. Green Bay has never fared well playing away against non-AP-ranked teams, placing the Tommies in an advantageous position.
- No significant injury reports are available for either team currently, suggesting both should have their key players available.
- The game takes place at St. Thomasβ home arena, providing a familiar environment and home crowd support for the Tommies. The timing is Friday early morning UTC, equating to Thursday night local time, a typical schedule unlikely to disrupt player performance.
- St. Thomas seeks to capitalize on their home advantage and improve from their recent losses, motivated to win before their conference schedule intensifies. Green Bay looks to break a poor road run and gain confidence early in the season but faces tough psychological and statistical challenges on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Phoenix: 625, St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: -1000 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Green Bay Phoenix: +13.5 -110, St. Thomas (MN) Tommies: -13.5 -110 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies to cover -13.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 154.5 -110, Under: 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Thomas (MN) is predicted to win comfortably, leveraging home advantage and Green Bay's historical road struggles. The recommended bet is St. Thomas to cover the -13.5 point spread.
Predicted Score: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 83 – Green Bay Phoenix 69