Match Analysis: Montréal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montréal, Quebec
Game Overview
The Dallas Stars (10-4-3, 23 points) travel to face the Montreal Canadiens (10-4-2, 22 points) in a competitive matchup between two well-matched Central and Atlantic Division teams. Both teams enter this contest with similar records and are performing near the top of their respective divisions. The Stars arrive following an overtime victory, while the Canadiens look to bounce back from a recent 5-1 home loss to the Los Angeles Kings on November 11.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dallas Stars rank 5th in goals scored (3.63 per game) with strong offensive capabilities, though their defensive metrics show 19th place in goals allowed (3.19 per game). The Canadiens average 3.63 goals per game with a more disciplined penalty kill at 80% (14th) compared to Dallas at 73.58% (26th). Montreal's power play efficiency stands at 26.09% (5th), indicating strong special teams performance. The Stars' 31st-ranked shots per game (24.6) versus Montreal's balanced approach suggests the Canadiens may control puck possession more effectively.
- Limited recent head-to-head data is available in the provided search results, though historical matchups show competitive contests between these franchises. Both teams are evenly matched in win-loss records, suggesting no significant historical advantage either way.
- No specific injury information is provided in the available data. Both teams appear to have healthy rosters based on the search results, though detailed injury reports are not included in the current information.
- The game takes place at the Bell Centre in Montreal, providing the Canadiens with home-ice advantage. However, the Stars' recent overtime victory demonstrates momentum and confidence entering this contest. Montreal's recent 5-1 loss may impact morale, though home games typically provide motivation for turnarounds.
- Dallas enters with positive momentum from their overtime win against the Senators on November 11. Montreal faces pressure to respond after a disappointing home loss and will be motivated to protect their home ice. Both teams are in playoff contention positions, making this divisional matchup significant for standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars -108 | Montréal Canadiens -112 | Dallas Stars Win | ★★★☆☆ 53% |
| Spread | Dallas Stars -1.5 (-285) | Montréal Canadiens +1.5 (230) | Dallas Stars Cover -1.5 | ★★☆☆☆ 48% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (105) | Under 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Dallas Stars are positioned as slight favorites despite playing on the road. Their stronger offensive ranking combined with recent momentum suggests they have a marginal edge. However, Montreal's home-ice advantage and superior penalty kill efficiency create a competitive environment. The Stars' prediction of 53% win probability from numberFire indicates a close contest with Dallas holding a narrow advantage.
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 3, Montréal Canadiens 2