Match Analysis: South Alabama Jaguars vs Central Michigan Chippewas – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: MacArthur Center, St. Petersburg, Florida
Game Overview
The inaugural Showdown in St. Pete Tournament kicks off with South Alabama Jaguars (3-0) hosting Central Michigan Chippewas (1-1) in an early Thursday morning matchup. South Alabama enters as the stronger program, having tied for first in the Sun Belt Conference last season with a 21-11 overall record, while Central Michigan finished tied for ninth in the Mid-American Conference at 14-17 overall. South Alabama dominated Spring Hill 99-50 on Saturday, while Central Michigan suffered a 85-54 loss to Bradley. This tournament game features two teams with contrasting momentum, as South Alabama maintains an undefeated record while Central Michigan looks to bounce back from a significant defeat.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama's 3-0 start demonstrates strong defensive and offensive execution, with their 99-50 victory over Spring Hill showing dominant performance. Central Michigan's 1-1 record masks concerns about their 31-point loss to Bradley, indicating potential defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent offensive production. South Alabama's program pedigree (21-11 last season) and conference standing (tied for first in Sun Belt) suggest superior roster depth and coaching stability compared to Central Michigan's mid-tier Mid-American Conference placement.
- The all-time series between these programs is tied 1-1, with Central Michigan posting a notable 74-70 victory in last year's season opener. However, historical context shows Central Michigan was 0-1 at neutral sites last season, while South Alabama was also 0-1 on neutral courts, suggesting both teams face challenges in non-conference tournament environments. The close nature of their previous matchup indicates competitive parity, though South Alabama's improved overall program standing may provide an edge in this neutral-site setting.
- No injury information is available in the provided search results for either team. This absence of data limits comprehensive injury analysis for both rosters.
- The 11:00 AM ET Thursday morning tip-off represents an unconventional game time that typically generates reduced public betting action and media coverage. The neutral-site MacArthur Center in St. Petersburg creates an unfamiliar environment for both teams. Tournament play in early November can feature variable team preparation and inconsistent performance patterns as programs develop chemistry. Both teams entered as tournament participants, suggesting deliberate scheduling choices that may impact rest and preparation protocols.
- South Alabama carries momentum from an undefeated start and tournament hosting positioning as a higher-seeded/more prestigious program within their conference structure. Central Michigan seeks redemption after the significant loss to Bradley and opportunity to establish credibility against a stronger opponent. Tournament victory provides both teams early-season resume building for NCAA Tournament consideration, though South Alabama's conference standing suggests higher expectations and motivation to maintain undefeated status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Michigan: +210 | South Alabama: -260 | South Alabama Jaguars to win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Central Michigan: +5.5 (-110) | South Alabama: -5.5 (-110) | South Alabama -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: South Alabama Jaguars at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama Jaguars are favored to win this matchup based on superior program standing, recent dominant performance, undefeated record, and stronger conference affiliation. The combination of South Alabama's 21-11 overall record from 2024-25 compared to Central Michigan's 14-17 record, along with South Alabama's perfect 3-0 start and 49-point margin of victory over Spring Hill, positions the Jaguars as the clear favorites. While Central Michigan's previous neutral-site victory (74-70) demonstrates competitive capability, South Alabama's current form and program trajectory suggest a higher probability of victory. The neutral-site setting mitigates some home-court advantage but does not sufficiently overcome South Alabama's personnel and performance advantages.
Predicted Score: South Alabama 72, Central Michigan 65