Match Analysis: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs Miss Valley St Delta Devils – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 5:00 AM UTC
- Location: Honolulu, HI
Game Overview
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors host the Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils in a college basketball matchup featuring a massive 41.5-point spread in favor of the home team. Hawaii enters as heavy favorites after a dominant 100-74 home victory over Texas A&M-Commerce, while Mississippi Valley State is struggling after a devastating 108-60 road loss to Murray State. This game presents a significant talent disparity, with Hawaii's defensive prowess and home-court advantage heavily favoring the Warriors. The betting market shows 85% of public money backing Hawaii, indicating overwhelming confidence in the home team's dominance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hawaii (1-1 record, 159-134 point differential) enters this matchup undefeated at home with a recent statement win against a conference opponent. Mississippi Valley State (1-2 record, 212-275 point differential) is in freefall, having lost 126 consecutive road games against non-conference opponents and has been outscored by 63 points overall. Hawaii has won its last home game and maintained defensive consistency, while Mississippi Valley State has surrendered 108 points in its most recent contest despite scoring only 60. The Delta Devils' defensive vulnerability and offensive struggles present a severe mismatch against Hawaii's demonstrated home strength.
- Hawaii defeated Mississippi Valley State 72-54 in their last matchup, establishing clear superiority in the season series. The 18-point victory demonstrates Hawaii's defensive control and ability to limit the Delta Devils' scoring output. This historical advantage compounds the current form disparity and suggests another convincing Hawaii victory is likely.
- No injury information available in current data. Both teams appear to have full rosters available for this matchup.
- Mississippi Valley State's historical road struggles (0-for-126 against non-conference opponents on the road) represent an extraordinary disadvantage. The 5:00 AM UTC start time (10:00 PM Hawaii time) provides Hawaii with optimal scheduling conditions on their home court, while Mississippi Valley State must adjust to travel, time zones, and an early evening tip-off. Hawaii's recent Wednesday performance history shows eight of their last eight Wednesday games produced totals of 143 or fewer points, suggesting defensive-oriented play patterns.
- Hawaii has clear motivation to dominate against an inferior opponent and maintain their perfect home record, while Mississippi Valley State faces the challenge of breaking a lengthy road losing streak against a much stronger team. Hawaii's momentum from defeating Texas A&M-Commerce contrasts sharply with Mississippi Valley State's demoralizing 48-point loss, creating a significant psychological advantage for the Warriors.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii -41.5 / Miss Valley St +41.5 | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | β β β β β 94% |
| Spread | Hawaii -41.5 (-115) / Miss Valley St +41.5 (-105) | Hawaii -41.5 (Cover the spread) | β β β β β 87% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 (-112) / Under 146.5 (-108) | Under 146.5 | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 39% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hawaii will decisively defeat Mississippi Valley State in a lopsided contest that validates the substantial betting line. The Warriors' home-court dominance, defensive excellence, and overwhelming talent advantage will prove too much for the struggling Delta Devils. Hawaii's ability to control games at home, combined with Mississippi Valley State's historical road futility and recent poor performance, strongly favors a convincing Warriors victory. The magnitude of the spread reflects the stark competitive disparity between these programs.
Predicted Score: Hawaii 89, Mississippi Valley State 48